The first leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round of 16 tie between Real Madrid (Spain) and Manchester City (England) will take place on 11 March at the Santiago Bernabeu. Real Madrid vs Manchester City: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Real Madrid
In the final matchday of the league phase, the home team lost 2:4 to Benfica and ultimately missed out on a place in the top eight. Most interestingly, it was the Lisbon side they had to face in the play-off round, but this time the hosts did not make any mistakes and beat their opponents in both legs (away – 1:0, at home – 2:1). Real Madrid have reached the Champions League round of 16 in every season since 1998/99. It is also worth noting that in the previous five editions, the club have come through this stage, and on two of those occasions they went on to win this European competition. Interestingly, the home side have won 13 of their last 15 two-legged ties in the Champions League round of 16.
- The Spanish side’s uncompromising run in this tournament stands at 26 matches (17 wins and 9 defeats).
- At least three goals were scored in 5 of Real Madrid’s previous 6 Champions League matches.
- On home soil, the hosts have won 10 of their last 13 matches in this European competition (3 defeats).
Potential Real Madrid Lineup (4-4-2)
Thibaut Courtois – Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy, Dean Huijsen – Aurelien Tchouameni, Thiago Pitarch, Arda Guler, Federico Valverde – Vinicius Junior, Brahim Diaz.
Due to injuries, forward Rodrygo, midfielders Jude Bellingham and Dani Ceballos, and defender Eder Militao will miss the game. Defender David Alaba, midfielder Eduardo Camavinga and Kylian Mbappe are all doubts for the match.
Manchester City
Since the 2013/14 season, the visitors have failed to reach the Champions League round of 16 only once. That happened a year ago, when they were stopped by Real Madrid, who beat Pep Guardiola’s side in both legs of the tie – 3:2 and 3:1. In this edition, the away team secured their place at this stage thanks to a final-round win over Galatasaray (2:0). Real Madrid also helped by losing their own match and finishing ninth, while the English side ended up eighth. Another interesting fact is that Manchester City have lost 7 of their last 10 European play-off ties against Spanish opposition.
- Three or more goals were scored in 12 of the Citizens’ previous 17 matches in this tournament.
- Manchester City scored two or more goals in 9 of their last 12 Champions League matches.
- The club failed to win 6 of their previous 8 away matches in this European competition (1 draw and 5 defeats).
Potential Manchester City Lineup (4-1-3-2)
Gianluigi Donnarumma – Rayan Ait-Nouri, Matheus Nunes, Ruben Dias, Marc Guehi – Rodri – Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva, Rayan Cherki – Antoine Semenyo, Erling Haaland.
Defender Josko Gvardiol and midfielder Mateo Kovacic are unavailable due to injuries.
Referee
Maurizio Mariani (Italy)
Matches – 7 (international matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 23;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 19;
Penalties – 14%.
Real Madrid vs Manchester City: Match Prediction
For the fifth consecutive season, these two opponents will face each other in the play-offs. For now it is all square, although in the previous two editions the Spanish side managed to knock the English team out of the competition. Overall, the teams have met 15 times in the Champions League and the head-to-head record is also even – five wins apiece, with five draws as well. These heavyweight clashes are usually entertaining and high-scoring. At least three goals were scored in 9 of the last 11 meetings, while both teams found the net in 11 of the previous 12 head-to-head games.
In addition, it is worth noting that there have been at least three goals in 13 of the last 14 home matches for the hosts in this European competition. Both teams scored in 15 of Real Madrid’s previous 16 home Champions League games. Three or more goals were scored in 12 of Manchester City’s last 14 away matches in this tournament. Both teams to score landed in 13 of the English side’s previous 16 away Champions League fixtures. And, of course, we should expect decisive contributions from Erling Haaland, who has scored 56 goals in his last 56 matches in this European competition, and also found the net 10 times in 10 previous games against Spanish teams in this tournament.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes + Over 2.5 goals
