The first leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round-of-16 tie between Atalanta BC (Italy) and Bayern Munich (Germany) will take place on 10 March at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo. Atalanta BC vs Bayern Munich: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Atalanta BC
Atalanta BC have reached the Champions League round of 16 for the second time in their history. In the previous round, Raffaele Palladino’s side were not discouraged by the setback in Dortmund (0:2), and on home soil the team got the required result – 4:1. Notably, the win over Borussia ended a run of three straight Champions League defeats for the Italian club. However, the club have conceded in a fifth consecutive match in this tournament. Atalanta BC have reached the Champions League quarter-finals only once, which came in the 2019/20 season. The Bergamo side have faced German teams five times in European play-off ties and progressed on three occasions.
- The Italian side have scored in five of their last seven Champions League matches.
- Both teams to score has landed in five of Atalanta BC’s previous six home Champions League games.
- On home soil in this tournament, the club have avoided defeat in five of their last seven matches (4 wins, 1 draw).
Potential Atalanta BC Lineup (3-4-3)
Marco Carnesecchi – Sead Kolasinac, Isak Hien, Berat Djimsiti – Nicola Zalewski, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Mario Pasalic, Davide Zappacosta – Marten de Roon, Gianluca Scamacca, Lazar Samardzic.
Midfielders Ederson, Charles De Ketelaere and forward Giacomo Raspadori are injured. Defender Giorgio Scalvini is suspended.
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich, coached by Vincent Kompany, finished second in the league phase. The Munich side recorded seven wins and lost only to Arsenal, who ended up first. Notably, against the Londoners the team conceded more than two goals for the only time in their last 15 Champions League matches. Bayern Munich, meanwhile, are among the three highest-scoring clubs, having found the net 22 times. Bayern Munich have progressed from the round of 16 in 13 of the previous 14 seasons. What is more, across their last 24 matches at this stage, the Munich side have suffered only two defeats.
- The team have scored at least twice in eight of their previous nine matches in this tournament.
- The German side have won five of their last seven away Champions League games (1 draw, 1 defeat).
- Bayern Munich have conceded in five consecutive away matches in the Champions League.
Potential Bayern Munich Lineup (4-5-1)
Jonas Urbig – Konrad Laimer, Josip Stanisic, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah – Michael Olise, Lennart Karl, Joshua Kimmich, Luis Diaz, Aleksandar Pavlovic – Nicolas Jackson.
Defender Hiroki Ito and goalkeeper Manuel Neuer are injured.
Referee
Espen Eskas (Norway)
Matches – 8 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 27;
Yellow cards per match (average) – 3.1;
Red cards shown – 1;
Fouls per match (average) – 21;
Penalties – 40%.
Atalanta BC vs Bayern Munich: Match Prediction
The Bergamo side have been excellent defensively in the Serie A, but on the European stage they do not always manage to maintain that level. Raffaele Palladino’s side have failed to keep a clean sheet across five Champions League matches. Even at home, the numbers do not improve: the Italian side have conceded in five of their last six games, and across that run they managed to shut out only Slavia, who are among the two lowest-scoring clubs in the current edition of the tournament.
The Munich side are showing outstanding attacking output. The team have already scored more than 100 goals across all competitions this season, and in eight of their previous nine Champions League matches Vincent Kompany’s men have struck at least twice. However, that attacking approach often leads to problems at the back. Even in the Bundesliga in 2026, the Munich side have conceded in nine of 10 matches. In the Champions League, there has not been a single clean sheet in their last five away games. Atalanta BC, who scored four goals against another German representative in the previous round, are sure to take advantage of this.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
