The first leg of the 2025/26 Champions League last-16 tie between Paris Saint-Germain (France) and Chelsea (England) will take place on 11 March at Parc des Princes in Paris. Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Paris Saint-Germain
This is the 14th consecutive season that the French side have featured in the Champions League last 16. In this campaign, the team had an excellent chance to reach this stage directly, but they failed to win their final three matches of the league phase, ultimately finishing 11th and heading into the play-offs, where Monaco stood in their way. The Parisians overcame the Principality club, though not without difficulty, advancing thanks to a 3:2 away win. At home, the club had to settle for a draw (2:2). Interestingly, a season earlier Paris Saint-Germain also played in the play-offs, with another Ligue 1 representative (Brest) as their opponents, and on that occasion Luis Enrique's men went on to win the Champions League for the first time in their history.
- The Parisians have failed to win five of their previous seven matches in this European competition (three draws and two defeats).
- Both teams scored in eight of Paris Saint-Germain's last nine matches in this tournament.
- At least three goals have been scored in 10 of the French side's previous 12 Champions League games.
Potential Paris Saint-Germain Lineup (4-3-3)
Matvei Safonov – Achraf Hakimi, Ilya Zabarnyi, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes – Warren Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Dro Fernandes – Senny Mayulu, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele.
Midfielders Joao Neves, Kwenten Ndzhantu and Fabian Ruiz will be unavailable through injury.
Chelsea
The London side finished sixth in the league phase, allowing them to avoid the additional play-offs and go straight into the last 16. A top-eight finish was secured thanks to wins over Pafos (1:0) and Napoli (3:2) in the final two rounds. It is also worth noting that this is the 18th time this century the English side have played in this tournament, and they have reached the spring stage on every occasion, making it at least to the quarter-finals in each of their last three attempts. In addition, Chelsea have won 13 of their previous 16 two-legged ties in European competition.
- The English side are unbeaten in six of their last seven matches in this tournament (five wins and one draw).
- Three or more goals have been scored in five of Chelsea's previous six Champions League matches.
- Both teams scored in the London side's last four away matches in this European competition.
Potential Chelsea Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Robert Sanchez – Mamadou Sarr, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Reece James – Andrey Santos, Moises Caicedo – Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernandez, Pedro Neto – Joao Pedro.
Defender Levi Colwill, forward Estevao, as well as midfielders Jamie Gittens and Dario Essugu will miss the game through injury.
Referee
Alejandro Hernandez Hernandez (Spain)
Matches – 6 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 13;
Yellow cards per match – 2.2;
Red cards shown – 0;
Fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 33%.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea: Match Prediction
The Parisians are currently tracking along last season's path. A year ago, just as in this campaign, the team came through a play-off tie against Ligue 1 opposition, and in the last 16 they will play the first leg against a Premier League representative. In fact, in last season's Champions League knockout rounds Paris Saint-Germain came up against three English opponents and eventually eliminated all of them. At the same time, we will not risk backing either team to win here, and instead suggest a high-scoring option, especially as both clubs have posted decent attacking numbers in this Champions League: the home team score 2.6 goals per match on average, while the visitors average 2.1.
We believe there will be at least three goals in this match. That total has been recorded in 10 of Paris Saint-Germain's previous 12 games in this tournament, as well as in five of Chelsea's last six matches in this European competition. It is also worth adding that the home side have scored at least twice in five of their previous seven home Champions League matches, while the away team have conceded two or three goals in their last five away games in this tournament. In addition, exactly three goals were scored in the last three head-to-head meetings between these opponents.
Prediction: Over 3 goals
