The first leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round of 16 tie between Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a. (Italy) and Bayern Munich (Germany) will take place on 10 March at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo. Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a. vs Bayern Munich: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a.
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a. have reached the Champions League round of 16 for the second time in their history. In the previous round, Raffaele Palladino's side were not discouraged by a setback in Dortmund (0:2) and, on home soil, the team got the result they needed – 4:1. It is worth noting that the win over Borussia ended the Italians' run of three straight defeats in the Champions League. However, the club have conceded in a fifth consecutive match in this tournament. Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a. have reached the Champions League quarter-finals only once, doing so in the 2019/20 season. The Bergamo outfit have also faced German teams five times in the European play-offs and progressed on three occasions.
- The Italians have scored in five of their last seven Champions League matches.
- Both teams to score has landed in five of Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a.'s previous six home games in the Champions League.
- On home soil in this tournament, the club have avoided defeat in five of their last seven matches (four wins, one draw).
Potential Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a. Lineup (3-4-3)
Marco Carnesecchi – Sead Kolasinac, Isak Hien, Berat Djimsiti – Nicola Zalewski, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Mario Pasalic, Davide Zappacosta – Marten de Roon, Gianluca Scamacca, Lazar Samardzic.
Midfielders Ederson and Charles De Ketelaere, as well as forward Giacomo Raspadori, are injured. Defender Giorgio Scalvini is suspended.
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich, managed by Vincent Kompany, finished second in the league phase. The Munich side recorded seven wins and lost out to Arsenal, who finished first. It is worth noting that in the match against the Londoners, the team conceded more than two goals for the only time in their last 15 Champions League games. Bayern Munich themselves, with 22 goals scored, are among the three highest-scoring clubs. Bayern Munich have made it through the round of 16 in 13 of the last 14 seasons. What is more, across their last 24 games at this stage, the Munich team have suffered just two defeats.
- The team have scored at least twice in eight of their previous nine matches in this tournament.
- The Germans have won five of their last seven away matches in the Champions League (one draw, one defeat).
- Bayern Munich have conceded in five straight away games in the Champions League.
Potential Bayern Munich Lineup (4-5-1)
Jonas Urbig – Konrad Laimer, Josip Stanisic, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae – Michael Olise, Lennart Karl, Joshua Kimmich, Luis Diaz, Aleksandar Pavlovic – Nicolas Jackson.
Defender Hiroki Ito and goalkeeper Manuel Neuer are injured.
Referee
Espen Eskas (Norway)
Matches – 8 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 27;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.1;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 40%.
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a. vs Bayern Munich: Match Prediction
The Bergamo side are producing excellent defensive performances in the Serie A, but on the European stage they do not always manage to maintain the same level. Raffaele Palladino's team have been unable to keep a clean sheet across five Champions League matches. Even at home, the numbers do not improve: the Italians have conceded in five of their last six matches, and the only side they have shut out in that spell were Slavia, who are among the two lowest-scoring clubs in the current edition of the tournament.
The Munich side are posting outstanding attacking numbers. The team have already scored more than 100 goals across all competitions this season, and in eight of their previous nine Champions League games, Vincent Kompany's men have scored at least twice. However, such an attacking approach often leads to defensive issues. Even in the Bundesliga in 2026, the Munich team have conceded in nine of 10 matches. In the Champions League, meanwhile, there has not been a single away clean sheet in their last five games. Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio S.p.a., who put four past another German representative in the previous round, should take advantage of that.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
