The Matchday 1 clash in the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Sporting (Portugal) and Kairat (Kazakhstan) will take place on September 18 at the Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon. Sporting vs. Kairat: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Sporting
The team secured their spot in the Champions League group stage by winning the last Portuguese championship. Sporting will test their strength in this tournament for the fourth time in the last five seasons. Their best achievement during this period was reaching the Round of 16. They could have repeated this in the 2024/25 Champions League, but Rui Borges' side lost to Borussia Dortmund in the playoffs (0-3, 0-0). As a result, the club's winless streak in this tournament has reached six matches (2 draws, 4 losses).
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 Champions League games involving the Portuguese side.
- The team conceded in 6 of their last 7 home matches in the Champions League.
- Sporting has not won at home in 5 of their last 7 matches in this tournament (1 draw, 4 losses).
Predicted lineup for Sporting (3-5-2)
João Virgínia – Georgios Vagiannidis, Gonçalo Inácio, Zeno Debast – Ricardo Mangas, Morten Hjulmand, Pedro Gonçalves, Geovane Kenda, Giorgi Kochorashvili – Luis Suárez, Francisco Trincão.
Injured players include midfielders Jeni Catamo, Daniel Bragança, defender Ousmane Diomande, and forward Nuno Santos.
Kairat
The Kazakh club will participate in the Champions League group stage for the first time in their history. After triumphing in the last KPL season, Rafael Urazbakhtin's team began their Champions League journey from the first qualifying round. Kairat defeated Olimpija Ljubljana (1-1, 2-0), KuPS (0-2, 3-0), Slovan Bratislava (1-0, 0-1, extra time 0-0, penalties 4-3), and after two goalless matches in the penalty shootout, they overcame Celtic. The Kazakh side last appeared in European competitions in the 2022/23 season, where they only managed to play one round in the Conference League, losing to Kisvarda.
- The team has not conceded more than one goal in their last 5 Champions League matches.
- Kairat has not won away in this tournament in 6 matches (3 draws, 3 losses).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 5 of Kairat's last 6 away games in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Kairat (4-3-3)
Sherkhan Kalmyrza – Alexander Martynovich, Egor Sorokin, Alexander Mrinsky, Erkin Tapalov – Valery Gromyko, Ofri Arad, Luís Mata – Edmilson Filho, Jorginho Costa, Dastan Satpayev.
Goalkeepers Alexander Zarutsky and Temirlan Anarbekov, as well as midfielder Giorgi Zaria, are injured.
Referee
Damian Sylwestrzak (Poland)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 26;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 71%.
Sporting vs. Kairat: Match Prediction
Kairat has given their country a reason to celebrate, becoming only the second Kazakh representative in the Champions League group stage. Rafael Urazbakhtin's team faces a tough challenge, with their first test against an experienced European opponent. I believe the team will play defensively on the road. Even earning one point away would be a good result for Kairat. In the Champions League qualifiers, the Kazakh side scored only one goal in four away matches but conceded only four goals in total.
It will be tough for the Portuguese side to break down a solid defense. Although Sporting scores regularly, they do not show extremely high scoring rates. The team has not scored more than three times in 19 of their last 21 home matches in the Champions League, often limiting themselves to just 1 or 2 goals. It will be very difficult to defeat a resilient opponent.
My prediction: Sporting individual total under 3.5
