Matchday 5 of the 2024/25 Champions League group stage between Sporting (Portugal) and Arsenal (England) will take place on November 26 at the José Alvalade Stadium in Lisbon. Sporting vs. Arsenal: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Matches – 9 (International matches, 2023/24–2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 37;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.1;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 22%.
Predicted lineups for Sporting vs. Arsenal
Sporting (3-4-3): Franco Israel – Zeno Debast, Gonçalo Inácio, Jerry St. Juste – Nuno Santos, Morten Hjulmand, Hidemasa Morita, Geny Catamo – Francisco Trincão, Viktor Gyökeres, Pedro Gonçalves.
Arsenal (4-3-3): David Raya – Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Ben White – Thomas Partey, Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard – Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz.
Sporting
Halfway through the group stage, there are still six clubs in the Champions League that remain unbeaten, including the Portuguese side, who have amassed 10 points with three wins and one draw. Notably, in the last round, the Lisbon team thrashed Manchester City 4-1 at home. This was the last match for Rúben Amorim, who left his position as head coach to lead another Manchester club. Sporting's defense is also noteworthy, having conceded just two goals, with only five teams boasting a better defensive record.
- No more than three goals have been scored in 6 of Sporting's last 7 Champions League games.
- The club has opened the scoring in 7 of their last 10 matches in this tournament.
- In 6 of Sporting's last 7 Champions League matches, one team led with a clean sheet at halftime.
Arsenal
The English side had a strong start in the first three rounds. They drew away against Atalanta (0-0), then defeated PSG (2-0) and Shakhtar (1-0) at home. However, in the last match, the Gunners conceded their first goal of the tournament and suffered their first defeat, losing 1-0 to Inter at home due to a penalty. As a result, Mikel Arteta's team has dropped to 12th place and trails the nearest top-8 rival by two points.
- In 6 of Arsenal's last 8 Champions League games, one team won with a clean sheet.
- At least one team failed to score in 7 of Arsenal's last 8 matches in this tournament.
- No more than two goals were scored in regular time in 8 of Arsenal's last 9 Champions League games.
Sporting vs. Arsenal: Match Prediction
I believe the bookmakers are underestimating the Portuguese side, offering slightly better odds for the visitors. Manchester City learned this the hard way, losing in Lisbon in the previous round. Sporting's style of play is unlikely to change drastically for the worse after the coaching change, so I expect Arsenal to face the same tough reception as City did.
Sporting has not suffered a single defeat in regular time this season. They are confidently leading the Primeira, having not dropped a single point after 11 rounds. The club averages 3.5 goals per game in their domestic league while conceding no more than 0.5 goals. Sporting also feels confident in the Champions League, with a goal difference of 9:2, placing them second in the group stage standings.
Arsenal has only shown a convincing performance against PSG after four rounds. In the other three main stage matches of the Champions League, the Gunners scored just one goal, struggling to collect only 4 points. My prediction: Sporting with a handicap (0)
