The second leg of the 2025/26 Conference League round-of-16 tie between Shakhtar Donetsk (Ukraine) and Lech Poznan (Poland) will take place on 19 March at the Henryk Reyman Municipal Stadium in Krakow. The first leg ended 3:1 in favour of Shakhtar Donetsk. Shakhtar Donetsk vs Lech Poznan: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk were able to see off the Polish side fairly comfortably on their ground, beating their opponents 3:1. The contest was largely even, although the Ukrainian team did fire far more efforts at goal – 16:8. Now the team simply need to avoid losing the return leg by more than one goal, which, incidentally, will also be played in Poland. It is also worth noting that the Miners scored more than twice in a Conference League match for the second time this season. If Shakhtar Donetsk win this two-legged tie, the club will reach the quarter-finals of a European competition for the first time since 2020.
- The Ukrainians have played nine matches in this tournament and suffered only one defeat (five wins and three draws).
- Shakhtar Donetsk have scored at least two goals in five of their previous seven Conference League matches.
- The club have not conceded in the first half in their last five matches in this European competition.
Potential Shakhtar Donetsk Lineup (4-3-3)*
Dmytro Riznyk – Vinicius Tobias, Marlon, Valerii Bondar, Pedro Henrique – Pedrinho, Dmytro Kryskiv, Oleh Ocheretko – Kauan Elias, Newerton, Alisson.
Midfielder Dmytro Kryskiv is out injured. Defender Valerii Bondar is unavailable through suspension.
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan did not deserve such a defeat in the first leg. Even the xG figure, which stood at 1.79:1.45 in favour of the Miners, shows that both sides had equal opportunities in the match, but the visitors were simply more clinical in the final third. Now Lech Poznan must win by at least three goals to progress to the next round of the tournament. A two-goal victory would take the tie to extra time. If they manage to get past the Ukrainian side, the Polish club will reach the quarter-finals of a European competition for only the second time in their history (they also achieved that in the 2022/23 season, again in the Conference League).
- The club have suffered only one defeat in their last six matches in this tournament (four wins and one draw).
- Both teams to score has landed in 12 of Lech Poznan's previous 15 Conference League games.
- At least three goals have been scored in 12 of the Poles' last 16 matches in this European competition.
Potential Lech Poznan Lineup (4-2-3-1)*
Bartosz Mrozek – Joel Pereira, Wojciech Monka, Michal Gurgul, Antonio Milic – Ali Gholizadeh, Leo Bengtsson, Luis Palma – Mikael Ishak.
Referee
Sander van der Eijk (Netherlands)
Matches – 11 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 29;
Yellow cards per match (average) – 2.6;
Red cards shown – 5;
Fouls per match (average) – 25;
Penalties – 27%.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Lech Poznan: Match Prediction
Shakhtar Donetsk are just minutes away from reaching the Conference League quarter-finals. Their debut season in this competition has gone superbly so far. The standard of opposition also falls short of the Champions League, where the Miners are used to competing. At present, the squad are still being fine-tuned so they can show their best in the autumn in a stronger continental tournament. Going forward, the team look in good shape, but there are still issues at the back. For that reason, we expect both sides to score again, just as they did in the first leg.
In the nine matches the Donetsk side have played in this tournament, they have failed to score only once. At the same time, the team have conceded in six matches in this European competition. Lech Poznan have been consistently productive in the Conference League and have scored in all of their previous 18 matches. However, the Polish club have also conceded in 12 of their last 15 games in this tournament.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
* For each team, the starting XI listed is from their previous match in this tournament.
