The first leg of the 2025/26 UEFA Conference League round-of-16 tie between Samsunspor (Turkey) and Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (Spain) will take place on 12 March at the Samsun 19 Mayis Stadium. Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Samsunspor
Samsunspor endured a poor second half of the league phase, which meant they missed out on a direct place in the round of 16. However, the play-off round caused no problems at all, with the home side recording two clean-sheet wins over Shkendija 79 to progress 5:0 on aggregate. The Turkish outfit ended a three-match winless run in the Conference League, and in their most recent game the team scored as many goals as they had managed in the previous four matches in the competition combined (four goals). It is also worth noting that Samsunspor have won three of their last four European matches on home soil, and in every one of those victories the club kept a clean sheet.
- At least one team failed to score in six of the Turks’ last eight Conference League matches.
- At least two goals were scored in six of Samsunspor’s previous seven matches in this competition.
- The club have avoided defeat in six of their last eight Conference League games (five wins, one draw).
Potential Samsunspor Lineup (4-4-2)*
Okan Kocuk – Rick van Drongelen, Lubomir Satka, Logi Tomasson, Zeki Yavru – Carlo Holse, Olivier Ntcham, Jores Assoumin, Antoine Makoumbou – Serigne Ndiaye, Marius Mouandilmadji.
Midfielders Jores Assoumin and Afonso Souza, defender Zeki Yavru and forward Tanguy Coulibaly will miss out through injury.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid were one of the standout sides in the Conference League league phase. Across six rounds, the away team collected 13 points, with only Rakow (14) and Strasbourg (16) picking up more. The visitors finished fifth in the standings, with two teams above them only on goal difference. It is worth highlighting that the Madrid outfit scored in every match, registering 13 goals – only AEK (14) managed more. At the same time, the club have kept a clean sheet in just one of their last five Conference League fixtures.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid have avoided defeat in seven of their last eight Conference League matches (six wins, one draw).
- The Spanish side scored at least two goals in six of their last seven matches in this European competition.
- Each of the club’s last five Conference League games finished with over 2.5 goals.
Potential Rayo Vallecano de Madrid Lineup (4-3-3)*
Augusto Batalla – Ivan Balliu, Florian Lejeune, Luis Felipe, Josua Vertrauud – Pedro Diaz, Unai Lopez, Gerard Gumbau – Andrei Ratiu, Fran Perez, Sergio Camello.
Midfielder Pate Ciss has served his suspension.
Referee
Marian Barbu (Romania)
Matches – 5 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 12;
Yellow cards per match – 2.4;
Red cards shown – 0;
Fouls per match – 27;
Penalties – 60%.
Samsunspor vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Match Prediction
This tie brings together two clubs who have been highly efficient in attack. While Samsunspor noticeably dipped at one stage, they exploded in the most recent meeting with Shkendija 79 – the team struck four times. Overall, in their debut Conference League campaign, the Turkish side have scored in seven of their last eight matches. Crucially, their only goalless outing came away from home.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid, meanwhile, have not failed to find the net once in this European season. Including the qualifiers, their scoring streak in the Conference League now stands at eight matches, and on six occasions the Spanish side scored at least twice. At the same time, the club have been far from perfect defensively, and due to frequent mistakes at the back both teams scored in four of the Madrid side’s last five European matches. It is entirely possible that both teams will find the net in Turkey as well.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
* For each team, the starting line-up from their most recent match in this competition is shown.
