The first leg of the 2025/26 Champions League last-16 tie between Real Madrid (Spain) and Manchester City (England) will take place on 11 March at the Santiago Bernabeu. Real Madrid vs Manchester City: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Real Madrid
In the final round of the league phase, Real Madrid lost 4:2 to Benfica and ultimately finished outside the top eight. Most interestingly, the Spanish side then had to face the Lisbon outfit again in the play-offs, but this time the team made no mistakes and beat their opponents in both legs (away – 1:0, home – 2:1). Real Madrid have consistently reached the Champions League last 16 since the 1998/99 season. It is also worth noting that in the previous five editions the club have come through this stage, and on two occasions they went on to win the trophy. Interestingly, Real Madrid have won 13 of their last 15 two-legged ties in the Champions League last 16.
- The Spanish side’s uncompromising run in this tournament stands at 26 matches (17 wins and 9 defeats).
- At least three goals have been scored in 5 of Real Madrid’s last 6 Champions League games.
- On home soil, the Madrid club have won 10 of their last 13 matches in this competition (3 defeats).
Potential Real Madrid Lineup (4-4-2)
Thibaut Courtois – Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy, Raul Asencio – Aurelien Tchouameni, Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Guler, Federico Valverde – Vinicius Junior, Brahim Diaz.
Forwards Kylian Mbappe and Rodrygo, midfielders Jude Bellingham and Dani Ceballos, and defenders David Alaba and Eder Militao will miss the match through injury.
Manchester City
Since the 2013/14 season, Manchester City have failed to reach the Champions League last 16 only once. That happened a year ago, when they were stopped by Real Madrid, who beat Pep Guardiola’s side in both legs of the tie – 3:2 and 3:1. In this campaign, the team secured their place at this stage thanks to a final-round win over Galatasaray (2:0). Real Madrid also played a part, losing their own match and finishing ninth, while the English side ended up eighth. Another interesting fact is that Manchester City have lost 7 of their last 10 European play-off ties against Spanish teams.
- Three or more goals have been scored in 12 of the Citizens’ last 17 matches in this tournament.
- Manchester City have scored two or more goals in 9 of their last 12 Champions League matches.
- The club have failed to win 6 of their last 8 away games in this competition (1 draw and 5 defeats).
Potential Manchester City Lineup (4-1-3-2)
Gianluigi Donnarumma – Rayan Ait-Nouri, Matheus Nunes, Ruben Dias, Marc Guehi – Rodri – Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva, Rayan Cherki – Antoine Semenyo, Erling Haaland.
Defenders Rico Lewis and Josko Gvardiol, as well as midfielder Mateo Kovacic, are unavailable due to injury.
Referee
Maurizio Mariani (Italy)
Matches – 7 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 23;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 19;
Penalties – 14%.
Real Madrid vs Manchester City: Match Prediction
For a fifth consecutive season, these two opponents are facing each other in the play-offs. So far the tie has been evenly balanced, although in the last two editions the Spanish side have managed to knock the English club out of the competition. Overall, the teams have met 15 times in the Champions League and the record is also level – five wins apiece, with five draws. These heavyweight clashes have generally been entertaining and high-scoring. At least three goals have been scored in 9 of the last 11 meetings, while both teams have scored in 11 of the last 12 head-to-head games.
In addition, it is worth noting that there have been at least three goals in 13 of the last 14 home matches played by the Madrid club in this competition. Both teams have also found the net in 15 of Real Madrid’s last 16 home Champions League fixtures. Three or more goals have been scored in 12 of Manchester City’s last 14 away matches in this tournament, and both teams have scored in 13 of the English side’s last 16 away Champions League games. And of course we should expect goal contributions from Erling Haaland, who has 56 goals in his last 56 matches in this competition, and has also scored 10 times in his last 10 games against Spanish teams in the tournament.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes + Over 2.5 goals
