The second-leg Champions League 2025/26 play-off tie between Real Madrid (Spain) and Benfica (Portugal) will take place on 25 February at the Santiago Bernabeu. The score in the first leg was 1:0 in favour of Real Madrid. Real Madrid vs Benfica: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid have continued to alternate between wins and defeats for several months now. The home team lost to Benfica in the final round of the Champions League league phase (2:4), but exacted partial revenge in the first leg of the play-offs. Their scoring run in this European campaign now stands at five matches. In addition, the club kept a clean sheet last week, having previously conceded consistently across five European fixtures. Now, to reach the round of 16, it will be enough for the hosts to avoid defeat in 90 minutes.
- Real Madrid have scored in 40 straight home matches in the Champions League.
- The club's run without draws in this tournament has reached 25 matches (16 wins, nine defeats).
- Both teams have scored in 14 of the last 15 home Champions League matches involving the Spanish side.
Potential Real Madrid Lineup (4-4-2)
Thibaut Courtois – Antonio Rudiger, Raul Asencio, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Alvaro Carreras – Arda Guler, Aurelien Tchouameni, Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde – Vinicius Junior, Gonzalo Garcia.
Defender Raul Asencio has completed his suspension, while forward Rodrygo continues to serve his ban. Due to injuries, forward Kylian Mbappe, midfielders Dani Ceballos and Jude Bellingham, as well as defenders Dean Huijsen and Eder Militao will miss the match.
Benfica
Like Real Madrid, Benfica have avoided draws in the Champions League for quite some time. The visitors' no-draw streak in this tournament now stands at 10 matches, with more than half ending in defeat – they have managed to win only four times. It is also worth noting that last Tuesday the team failed to keep a clean sheet for a third consecutive European match. If they win by a one-goal margin, the Lisbon side will take the tie into extra time, while to go through within 90 minutes Benfica need to win by at least two goals.
- At least one team failed to score in seven of the last eight Champions League matches involving the Portuguese side.
- The club have not scored more than one goal in four of their previous five away matches in this tournament.
- Benfica have not won four of their last five away Champions League matches (one draw, three defeats).
Potential Benfica Lineup (4-5-1)
Anatoliy Trubin – Amar Dedic, Tomas Araujo, Nicolas Otamendi, Samuel Dahl – Rafa Silva, Heorhii Sudakov, Leandro Barreiro, Fredrik Aursnes, Andreas Schjelderup – Evangelos Pavlidis.
First-choice midfielder Gianluca Prestianni is suspended. The participation of midfielder Fredrik Aursnes is in doubt.
Referee
Slavko Vincic (Slovenia)
Matches – 10 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 20;
Average yellow cards per match – 2;
Red cards shown – 1;
Fouls per match on average – 24;
Penalties – 40%.
Real Madrid vs Benfica: Match Prediction
Despite the thrilling head-to-head in the Champions League league phase, the teams played far more cautiously in the play-off match, which is why we saw only one goal last week. Perhaps the decisive game will be more open, but right now it is unlikely we will get a repeat of the January thriller. Although Real Madrid home matches in the Champions League are often high-scoring, more than three goals have been scored in only one of their last six games. If we also take away fixtures into account, three goals was the limit in nine of the club's last 13 matches in this European campaign.
For Benfica, truly entertaining matches can generally be described as a rarity. Low-scoring games accounted for five of the Portuguese side's previous six Champions League fixtures. More than three goals were scored in only one of the club's last eight matches in this tournament. Benfica's last away match in European competition in which the teams produced at least four goals took place back in March last year.
Prediction: Under 3.5 goals
