The Matchday 23 clash in La Liga between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will take place on February 8 at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Real Madrid
Carlo Ancelotti's side suffered a shocking defeat to Espanyol (0-1) in the last round. Before that, the club was unbeaten in six consecutive league matches, securing five wins and one draw. Notably, the capital team failed to score for only the second time in this season's La Liga. Real remains in the lead, but their gap over Atletico has narrowed to a minimum, with Barcelona four points behind.
Defenders David Alaba, Antonio Rudiger, Eder Militao, and Dani Carvajal are sidelined due to injuries. The participation of forward Kylian Mbappe and midfielder Jude Bellingham is in doubt.
- At least three goals have been scored in 7 of Real's last 8 La Liga games.
- The club has won 29 of their last 34 home league matches (4 draws and 1 defeat).
- The team has not conceded in the first half in 11 of their last 13 home La Liga matches.
Predicted lineup for Real Madrid (4-2-3-1)
Thibaut Courtois – Aurelien Tchouameni, Lucas Vazquez, Fran Garcia, Antonio Rudiger – Federico Valverde, Dani Ceballos – Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo Goes – Kylian Mbappe.
Atletico Madrid
The team ended a brief winless streak in La Liga, during which they lost to Leganes (0-1) and drew with Villarreal (1-1). In the last round, the Madrid side defeated Mallorca (2-0) at home. Thanks to Real's slip-up, Diego Simeone's team has closed the gap to just one point. Notably, Atletico's defense remains the best in the league, conceding only 14 goals.
Defender Robin Le Normand will miss the derby due to yellow card accumulation. Defender Javi Galan is out with an injury.
- No more than three goals have been scored in Atletico's last six La Liga matches.
- The number "1" has appeared in the final score in 8 of Atletico's last 9 away La Liga games.
- The club has won the second half in 10 of their last 11 league matches.
Predicted lineup for Atletico Madrid (4-4-2)
Jan Oblak – Reinildo Mandava, Robin Le Normand, Marcos Llorente, Clement Lenglet – Pablo Barrios, Koke, Giuliano Simeone, Samuel Lino – Alexander Sorloth, Julian Alvarez.
Referee
Cesar Soto Grado (Spain)
Matches – 12 (La Liga, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 52;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 8%.
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid: Match Prediction
The upcoming match is unlikely to be high-scoring, as the stakes are high, and any mistake could significantly diminish their chances of winning the championship. Therefore, I expect both teams to focus primarily on defense, a strategy Atletico excels at. Diego Simeone's side has conceded more than one goal only once on the road in this La Liga season, and they haven't scored more than one goal in 7 of their last 9 away league matches.
Madrid derbies are rarely high-scoring affairs. Three or more goals have been scored in only two of the last 11 La Liga meetings. At the Santiago Bernabeu, neither team has scored more than two goals in nine consecutive league encounters. I believe this trend will continue, as even a single goal could decide the outcome. I think both clubs will avoid taking risks and attacking in large numbers.
My prediction – Total under 2.5 goals
