Champions League
Quarter-finals
Real Madrid
MATCH FINISHED
16 Apr
1
:
2
Arsenal

Match stats

Logo Real Madrid Logo Arsenal
66 Ball possession (%) 34
18 Goal attempts 11
3 Shots on Goal 6
5 Shots off Goal 3
10 Blocked shots 2

Real Madrid vs Arsenal: prediction & betting odds 16 Apr 2025

The second leg of the 2024/25 Champions League quarter-final between Real Madrid (Spain) and Arsenal (England) will take place on April 16 at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. The first match ended 3-0 in favor of Arsenal. Real Madrid vs. Arsenal: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Real Madrid

In the first meeting, the Spaniards lost 0-3. This defeat marked Carlo Ancelotti's side's second consecutive loss in this European competition, with the team failing to score in regular time once again. To advance to the semi-finals, Madrid needs to thrash the English side by at least four goals. If the team wins by exactly three goals, extra time will be played. Notably, Real Madrid has only once in its history overcome a three-goal deficit in the main European tournament. This happened in 1976 against Derby County (the Spaniards advanced due to a win in extra time).

  • At least three goals have been scored in 7 of Real Madrid's last 8 matches in this European competition.
  • The Spaniards have won 6 of their last 7 home matches in the Champions League.
  • Both teams scored in Real Madrid's last 10 home games in the Champions League.

Predicted lineup for Real Madrid (4-3-3)

Thibaut Courtois – Raul Asensio, Antonio Rudiger, Aurelien Tchouameni, David Alaba – Federico Valverde, Dani Ceballos, Jude Bellingham – Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo Goes, Kylian Mbappe.

Goalkeeper Andriy Lunin, defenders Ferland Mendy, Eder Militao, and Dani Carvajal are out due to injuries. Midfielder Eduardo Camavinga will miss the match due to suspension.

Arsenal

By defeating Real Madrid in the first match, the English side extended their unbeaten run in the Champions League to seven matches (6 wins and 1 draw). During this stretch, the Londoners have achieved five large-margin victories. Notably, in the first match, Declan Rice scored two goals from free kicks, a feat no one had achieved before in the Champions League playoffs. Now Mikel Arteta's side can afford to lose by one or two goals. Furthermore, Arsenal has never been eliminated from a European competition after winning the first match by at least three goals.

  • At least three goals have been scored in Arsenal's last seven Champions League games.
  • The team has scored at least twice in their last seven matches in this European competition.
  • The Londoners have conceded exactly one goal in 8 of their last 9 away matches in this tournament.

Predicted lineup for Arsenal (4-3-3)

David Raya – Miles Lewis-Skelly, Jurrien Timber, William Saliba, Jakub Kiwior – Oleksandr Zinchenko, Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard – Mikel Merino, Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka.

Forwards Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus, midfielder Jorginho, and defenders Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Magalhaes, and Takehiro Tomiyasu will not play due to injuries. Midfielder Thomas Partey's participation is questionable.

Referee

Francois Letexier (France)

Matches – 11 (International matches, 2024/25);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 55;

Average yellow cards per match – 5;

Red cards shown – 3;

Average fouls per match – 21;

Penalties – 36%.

Match Prediction: Real Madrid vs. Arsenal

For Carlo Ancelotti's side, this season could end in complete failure. Madrid has already lost to Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup final, and they are likely to fall short to the Catalans in La Liga. Now, in the Champions League, they face an almost impossible task – to overturn a three-goal deficit. Nevertheless, I believe there is a slim chance to thrash the English side, but they will need to play offensively throughout the match.

Real Madrid plays exceptionally well at home in this European competition. In their last 19 home matches in the Champions League, the club has lost only once in regular time (15 wins and 3 draws), and they have scored in all these matches. In 7 of their last 8 home matches in this tournament, Madrid has scored at least twice. However, the Spaniards have conceded in their last ten home matches in the Champions League.

Mikel Arteta is well aware of Real Madrid's strength, so the Arsenal manager is likely to rely on counter-attacks. I believe the English side will be able to catch the Madrid team off guard. The Gunners have not left the field without scoring in their last seven consecutive Champions League matches, scoring at least twice in all of them.

Considering all these factors, I propose the prediction: Both teams to score – Yes

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Odds

1X2
DOUBLE CHANCE
OVER/UNDER
BTTS
TOTAL HOME GOALS
TOTAL AWAY GOALS

Champions League: previous matches of the tournament

Real Madrid
08.04.25
Arsenal
Real Madrid
L
12.03.25
Atlético Madrid
Real Madrid
1
:
0
0
:
0
OT
2
:
4
P
L
04.03.25
Real Madrid
Atlético Madrid
W
19.02.25
Real Madrid
Manchester City
W
11.02.25
Manchester City
Real Madrid
W
29.01.25
Brest
Real Madrid
W
22.01.25
Real Madrid
Red Bull Salzburg
W
10.12.24
Atalanta
Real Madrid
W
27.11.24
Liverpool
Real Madrid
L
05.11.24
Real Madrid
AC Milan
L
22.10.24
Real Madrid
Borussia Dortmund
W
02.10.24
Lille
Real Madrid
L
17.09.24
Real Madrid
Stuttgart
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H2H: Real Madrid — Arsenal

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:
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:
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Team lineups

Real Madrid

coach
Player Matches Goals
Line-up
Thibaut Сourtois
gk. 12 -18
Antonio Rüdiger
df. 13 2
Asencio
df. 10 0
Lucas Vázquez
df. 10 1
David Alaba
df. 5 0
Federico Valverde
mf. 14 0
Jude Victor William Bellingham
mf. 13 3
Aurelien Tchouameni
mf. 11 0
Kylian Mbappé
fw. 14 7
Rodrygo Goes
fw. 12 5
Vinisius Junior
fw. 12 8
Substitutes
Francisco Javier González Pérez
gk. 0 0
Sergio Sanchez
gk. 0 0
Fran García
df. 9 0
Jesús Vallejo
df. 0 0
Luka Modrić
mf. 14 0
Brahim Díaz
mf. 11 2
Daniel Ceballos
mf. 9 0
Arda Güler
mf. 7 0
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa
fw. 9 1
Arsenal

coach
Player Matches Goals
Line-up
David Raya
gk. 10 -5
Jurriën David Norman Timber
df. 10 1
William Saliba
df. 8 0
Jakub Piotr Kiwior
df. 7 0
Declan Rice
mf. 10 4
Thomas Teye Partey
mf. 10 0
Mikel Merino
mf. 9 2
Martin Ødegaard
mf. 8 3
Myles Anthony Lewis-Skelly
mf. 7 0
Gabriel Teodoro Martinelli Silva
fw. 10 1
Saka Bukayo
fw. 6 4
Substitutes
Norberto Neto
gk. 1 -1
Tommy Hogan Setford
gk. 0 0
Ben White
df. 6 0
Oleksandr Zinchenko
df. 5 1
Kieran Tierney
df. 4 0
Michał Rosiak
df. 0 0
Ethan Chidiebere Nwaneri
mf. 6 2
Jack Henry-Francis
mf. 0 0
Jimi Gower
mf. 0 0
Leandro Trossard
fw. 11 2
Raheem Sterling
fw. 6 0
Nathan Jerome Chatoyer Butler-Oyedeji
fw. 1 0
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