The first play-off match of the 2025/26 Champions League tie between Qarabag FK (Azerbaijan) and Newcastle United (England) will take place on 18 February at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium in Baku. Qarabag FK vs Newcastle United: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Qarabag FK
Qarabag FK have become the first Azerbaijani team to reach the Champions League play-offs. In the league phase, the home team collected 10 points (three wins, one draw) to finish 22nd. However, the club also stood out for the wrong reasons, conceding 21 goals—placing them among the five worst sides by that metric. At the same time, the squad scored in six of eight matches in the group stage, with the two games in which they failed to find the net coming away from home.
- The Azerbaijanis have conceded at least twice in six consecutive Champions League matches.
- A goal in both halves has been scored in 10 of the previous 11 Champions League matches involving the Agdam side.
- Both teams have scored in seven of Qarabag FK's last 11 Champions League matches.
Potential Qarabag FK Lineup (4-5-1)
Mateusz Kochalski – Bahlul Mustafazada, Kevin Medina, Matheus Silva, Elvin Cafarquliyev – Marko Jankovic, Abdellah Zoubir, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicalho, Jony Montiel – Camilo Duran.
Newcastle United
Newcastle United finished 12th in the league phase. Eddie Howe's side avoided defeat in six of eight matches (four wins, two draws) and scored in every game. What is more, the club's Champions League scoring run now stands at 10 matches. At the other end, the away team were solid, conceding only seven goals—placing them in the tournament's top four by that measure. It is also worth noting that the club have reached the Champions League play-offs for the first time in their history.
- At least three goals have been scored in seven of the English side's previous nine Champions League matches.
- Away from home in this competition, the team have failed to win six of their last seven matches (four draws, two defeats).
- In five of Newcastle United's previous seven Champions League matches, they have not conceded more than once.
Potential Newcastle United Lineup (4-3-3)
Nick Pope – Dan Burn, Kieran Trippier, Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw – Jacob Ramsey, Joe Willock, Sandro Tonali – Nick Woltemade, Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes.
In the treatment room, the team have midfielder Bruno Guimaraes, as well as defenders Tino Livramento and Fabian Schar.
Referee
Espen Eskas (Norway)
Matches – 11 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 43;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.9;
Red cards shown – 0;
Fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 27%.
Qarabag FK vs Newcastle United: Match Prediction
The Azerbaijanis begin this two-legged tie on home soil. Given the team's poor away results, Qurban Qurbanov's side will do everything possible to secure a comfortable advantage. In the league phase, the home team lost only one match at home, yet even then they did not leave the pitch without scoring. What is more, the club's home scoring run in this tournament stands at seven games. At the same time, Qarabag FK conceded almost three goals per match on average in the group stage.
The English side look far more reliable defensively. However, away from home the team still leave gaps: Newcastle United have conceded in five of their last six Champions League matches. They are unlikely to keep a clean sheet against the Azerbaijanis, who are very proactive at home. But Eddie Howe's men should score against this opponent without too much trouble. After all, the club have been clinical in front of goal. The English side's scoring run in this tournament has stretched on since the 2023/24 season and now stands at 10 matches.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
