The Matchday 4 clash in the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Qarabag (Azerbaijan) and Chelsea (England) will take place on November 5 at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium in Baku. Qarabag vs. Chelsea: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Qarabag
The Caucasians suffered their first defeat of the current Champions League group stage in the third round. Playing away, Gurban Gurbanov's side lost 1-3 to Athletic, despite taking the lead in the first minute. Before that, the team defeated Benfica away (3-2) and Copenhagen at home (2-0). The club is in 13th place with 6 points, trailing the nearest top-8 opponent only on tiebreakers.
- Qarabag has won 7 of their last 9 encounters in this tournament.
- At least 3 goals have been scored in 5 of Qarabag's last 6 Champions League games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 matches for the Caucasians in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for Qarabag (4-5-1)
Mateusz Kochalski – Behlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Abdellah Zoubir, Kady, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicalho, Chris Kwakou – Nariman Ahundzade.
Forward Marko Jankovic is out due to injury.
Chelsea
The English side began the group stage with an away defeat to Bayern (1-3). However, they bounced back in the next two rounds, both played at home. First, they narrowly defeated Benfica (1-0), then thrashed Ajax 5-1. This lifted them to 11th place in the standings. Interestingly, Chelsea is just one goal shy of reaching 350 in the Champions League, and it seems likely they'll achieve this in Baku, given they've scored in their last 18 European matches.
- Chelsea's uncompromising streak in this tournament is 11 matches – 7 wins and 4 losses.
- One of the teams failed to score in 5 of Chelsea's last 7 Champions League games.
- The Londoners have lost their last 3 away European matches without scoring.
Predicted lineup for Chelsea (4-2-3-1)
Robert Sanchez – Reece James, Trevoh Chalobah, Josh Achimpong, Marc Cucurella – Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caicedo – Alejandro Garnacho, Marc Guy, Estevao – Joao Pedro Jesus.
Injuries have sidelined defenders Levi Colwill, Benoit Badiashile, and Dario Essugo, as well as midfielders Pedro Neto and Cole Palmer.
Referee
Sebastian Gishamer (Austria)
Matches – 14 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 63;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;
Red cards shown – 5;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 14%.
Qarabag vs. Chelsea: Match Prediction
These teams previously met in the 2017/18 Champions League group stage. Back then, the English side easily dispatched the Caucasians in both encounters (6-0 and 4-0). While another thrashing of the Azerbaijanis seems unlikely, I'm confident the visitors will take all 3 points from Baku. Qarabag boasts a strong home record in this tournament, although it was achieved in the qualifying rounds. Notably, in their last 7 European encounters with Premier League representatives, the Caucasians have only suffered defeats.
Chelsea is in excellent form. They recently won a derby against Tottenham, which brought them closer to the second spot. Additionally, the Londoners have won 14 of their last 16 European matches, with only 2 losses. The level of leagues and squads between the opponents heavily favors the English side, so my prediction is Chelsea with a handicap (-1).
