The first leg of the 2024/25 Europa League playoff between Porto (Portugal) and Roma (Italy) will take place on February 13 at the Estádio do Dragão. Porto vs. Roma: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Porto
Martin Anselmi's side emerged victorious against Maccabi Tel Aviv (1-0) in their last Europa League match. This victory was only Porto's third in their last 11 matches in this European competition (4 draws, 4 losses). Nevertheless, the team managed to reach the playoffs by finishing 18th in the overall stage. Notably, the Portuguese side has failed to score in only one match in the current Europa League campaign.
Defender Martim Fernandes and midfielder Marko Grujić will miss the game due to injuries. It should also be noted that midfielder Nico Gonzalez and forward Wanderson Galeno have left the club.
- The club has not lost in regular time in 7 of their last 10 home matches in the Europa League (5 wins, 2 draws).
- At least one of the opponents has failed to score in 4 of Porto's last 5 home matches in this European competition.
- The Portuguese side has conceded in regular time in 10 of their last 12 home matches in the Europa League.
Predicted lineup for Porto (4-3-3)
Diogo Costa – Francisco Moura, Otávio, João Mário Lopes, Tiago Djaló – Nico Gonzalez, Stephen Eustáquio, Alan Varela – Pepe Aquino, Danny Loader, Fábio Vieira.
Roma
In the last round of the overall stage, Claudio Ranieri's side defeated Eintracht 2-0 at home. As a result, Roma managed to avoid defeat for the fifth time in their last six Europa League matches (3 wins, 2 draws). Thanks to this victory, the club secured a spot in the playoffs and advanced to the playoff matches from the 15th position. Notably, the Romans have shown solid defensive play, conceding only six goals during the overall stage, second only to Lazio (5) and Olympiacos (3).
Midfielder Leandro Paredes is doubtful for the game.
- The team has not won in regular time in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the Europa League (5 draws, 4 losses).
- The club has not scored more than once in 8 of their last 10 away matches in this European competition.
- The Romans have conceded exactly one or two goals in regular time in 11 of their last 12 away matches in the Europa League.
Predicted lineup for Roma (4-4-2)
Mile Svilar – Gianluca Mancini, Evan Ndicka, Mats Hummels, Angeliño – Lorenzo Pellegrini, Manu Koné, Leandro Paredes, Alexis Saelemaekers – Artem Dovbyk, Paulo Dybala.
Referee
Tobias Stieler (Germany)
Matches – 10 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 42;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.2;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 30%.
Porto vs. Roma: Match Prediction
At home, Porto fully utilizes the support of their fans and rarely allows opponents to achieve maximum results. Porto's home statistics in the Europa League look impressive: in their last 19 home matches in this European competition, the team has lost only five times, winning 11. Additionally, Porto has won all three of their previous home encounters with Italian clubs in the Europa League.
Roma does not exhibit confident play away from home, both in European competitions and in the Italian championship. In the current Europa League campaign, the team has earned only two points in four away matches, while in the current Serie A season, the Romans have won just two of their 12 away matches. It is also worth mentioning that in their last 16 away Europa League encounters, Roma has won only twice in regular time (8 draws, 6 losses).
I do not think the Italians will have many chances to achieve maximum results in this match. My prediction: Porto with a handicap (0)
