The FA Cup fifth-round tie between Port Vale and Sunderland will take place on 8 March at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent. Port Vale vs Sunderland: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Port Vale
In this century, a League One side have reached the last 16 of this competition for the third time. Previously, they have been unable to go any further. Incidentally, last season the club’s run ended at the very first stage, losing to Barnsley 1:3. In the current campaign, Port Vale have had a kind draw and have played all four previous rounds at home, against opponents who do not play in the Premier League. The toughest tie came in the previous round, when the club edged past Bristol City thanks to an extra-time goal (0:0, aet 1:0).
- The team have avoided defeat in normal time in eight of their last nine FA Cup matches (four wins and four draws).
- Port Vale have not scored more than one goal in seven of their previous nine home games in this tournament.
- The club have kept a clean sheet at their ground in their last three FA Cup matches.
Potential Port Vale Lineup (4-4-2)*
Joe Gauci – Tyler Magloire, Cameron Humphreys, Connor Hall, Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel – Jordan Shipley, Rhys Walters, Ethan Archer, Liam Gordon – Ben Waine, Martin Sherif.
Sunderland
The club have not found it easy to reach this stage, having played two matches in the current campaign. First, they got past Everton thanks to better penalty-taking, and they did so at Everton’s ground – 1:1, aet 1:1, pens 3:0, before then overcoming Oxford United away (1:0). Interestingly, in 2004 Sunderland reached the FA Cup semi-finals, but since then they have not gone beyond the quarter-finals. Last season, the team were knocked out by Stoke City as early as the round of 64.
- The club have recorded just one win in normal time in their last six matches in this tournament (three draws and two defeats).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 10 of Sunderland’s previous 13 FA Cup matches.
- Both teams scored in five of the team’s last seven games in this cup.
Potential Sunderland Lineup (4-1-4-1)*
Robin Roefs – Trai Hume, Nordi Mukiele, Luke O'Nien, Dennis Cirkin – Lutsharel Geertruida – Shemsdine Talbi, Habib Diarra, Enzo Le Fee, Romaine Mundle – Wilson Isidor.
Referee
Anthony Taylor (England)
Matches – 23 (the Premier League and English cups, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 86;
Yellow cards per match on average – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 2;
Fouls per match on average – 20;
Penalties – 17%.
Port Vale vs Sunderland: Match Prediction
The hosts of the upcoming tie can confidently be called the weakest side at the FA Cup fifth-round stage. After all, the team not only play in League One, but also sit bottom of the standings in that division. It is important to note that, despite 24th place in the third tier, Port Vale concede very little – an average of 1.4 goals. The main problem for the team is an attack that scores fewer than anyone else in League One.
It is obvious that the home side will focus fully on defence and try to keep a clean sheet until the penalty shootout. That is exactly how they got past their previous three opponents in the FA Cup, conceding no goals at all. We believe that even if Port Vale lose, it will be by the narrowest of margins. That has happened in nine of their last 10 matches in this tournament. What is more, Sunderland have not won an FA Cup match by two or more goals in 18 of their previous 19 games.
Prediction: Port Vale (+1.5)
* For each team, the starting XI listed is from their previous match in this tournament.
