The return leg of the 2025/26 Champions League play-off tie between Paris Saint-Germain (France) and Monaco (France) will take place on 25 February at the Allianz Stadium in Turin. The score in the first leg was 3:2 in favour of Paris Saint-Germain. Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Paris Saint-Germain
The reigning European champions secured a strong result in the first leg. They managed to win away from home – 3:2. The capital club enjoyed a huge advantage throughout the match and held a clear edge in a number of key metrics: xG – 3.09:1.20, shots – 30:7, shots on target – 10:4, and even corners – 8:1. Now a draw in the return match will be enough for the team to reach the Champions League round of 16 for the 14th consecutive time. Interestingly, prior to that game, the Parisians had gone three straight matches without a win in this European competition (two draws and one defeat).
- The Parisians have avoided defeat in 10 of their previous 12 matches in this tournament (eight wins and two draws).
- Both teams to score has landed in seven of Paris Saint-Germain's last eight Champions League games.
- At least three goals have been scored in nine of the club’s previous 11 matches in this European competition.
Potential Paris Saint-Germain Lineup (4-3-3)*
Matvey Safonov – Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes – Warren Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Joao Neves – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembele.
Midfielders Fabian Ruiz and Senny Mayulu are still doubtful due to injuries. Midfielder Quentin Ndjantu and forward Ousmane Dembele will be unavailable through injury.
Monaco
Monaco put up a strong fight against their more illustrious compatriots right up until half-time. Before the start of the second 45 minutes, the score was 2:2, but early in the second half the team were reduced to 10 men and ultimately lost (2:3). Now they must win at the Parc des Princes, and by a margin of two goals or more. If they manage to win by one goal, extra time will be played. It is also worth noting that the French club have now gone three Champions League matches without a win (one draw and two defeats). We should also add that a year ago, Monaco were knocked out at this stage, losing to Benfica by a single goal (3:3 and 0:1).
- The team have failed to win 10 of their previous 12 matches in this tournament (five draws and five defeats).
- Away from home, Monaco have failed to win six of their last seven Champions League matches (two draws and four defeats).
- Three or more goals have been scored in six of the last seven away games for the Monegasques in this European competition.
Potential Monaco Lineup (4-2-3-1)*
Philipp Kohn – Vanderson de Oliveira, Jordan Teze, Wout Faes, Caio Henrique – Lamine Camara, Denis Zakaria – Maghnes Akliouche, Simon Adingra, Aleksandr Golovin – Folarin Balogun.
Goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky, midfielders Pape Cabral, Paul Pogba (left out of the squad) and Takumi Minamino, as well as defenders Kassoum Ouattara, Christian Mawissa, Mohammed Salisu and Eric Dier are all sidelined with injuries. Midfielder Aleksandr Golovin will miss the match through suspension.
Referee
Istvan Kovacs (Romania)
Matches – 8 (international matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 34;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Fouls per match on average – 28;
Penalties – 25%.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco: Match Prediction
The first leg delivered five goals, so we expect the return fixture to be no less entertaining and high-scoring. In Fontvieille, fans saw two braces – from Folarin Balogun and Desire Doue – as well as a missed penalty by Vitinha. It is also interesting that Doue has already scored four goals in five Champions League matches. We are expecting particularly attacking football from the hosts, who have won seven of their previous nine home matches across European competition and Ligue 1 (with two draws), scoring at least three goals on six occasions.
Overall, the Parisians could score three or more goals again in this match. Monaco are not as strong away from home as they are on their own patch, and in their last seven away Champions League games they have managed just one win, while conceding three or more goals five times. In addition, the Parisians have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings. These encounters are especially compelling in Paris, where across the last 10 official meetings, Paris Saint-Germain have won seven times, and four or more goals have been scored on six occasions. For that reason, we are proposing a combined pick on a home win and high scoring.
Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain to win + Over 3.5 goals
* For each team, the starting line-up shown is from their most recent match in this tournament.
