Paris Form and Lineup
Paris have sharply improved in April: in their last five Ligue 1 matches the team have three wins and two draws with a goal difference of 11:5. At home the scoring picture is similar: in their last five games on their own pitch the hosts have scored 10 times but also conceded 10. This is open football with a lot of risk. The home Jean Bouin is far from a fortress: against serious attacks the hosts fall apart, having, for example, lost 0:5 to Lens.
Key figures:
- Paris score an average of 1.57 goals at home but concede 1.79.
- In their last five home games there have been an average of 4 goals in Paris matches.
- Ilan Kebbal is the main source of danger: nine goals with 5.71 xG.
Interesting facts: – Since the coaching change the team have not lost a single Ligue 1 match (4 wins, 3 draws), but the balance in defence still does not look reliable (they conceded in 5 of 7 cases).
Potential lineup (4-2-3-1): Kevin Trapp – Hamari Traore, Diego Coppola, Mustafa M'Bow, Noam Sangi – Pierre Lees-Melou, Rabbi Matondo – Marshall Munetsi, Ilan Kebbal, Nanitamo Ikone – Ciro Immobile.
Unavailable: Samir Alakouch, Pierre-Yves Hamel, Timothee Kolodziejczak, Jean-Philippe Krasso, Julien Lopez, Remy Riou, Moses Simon; doubtful: Luca Koleosho.
Lille Form and Lineup
Before the goalless draw with Nice, Bruno Genesio's team put together a run of nine Ligue 1 matches without defeat, in which they put four past Toulouse without reply, three past Lens and knocked out Marseille and Rennes. Away from home the Dogs have four wins in a row, and in three of them they scored two or more. The attack is driven by the partnership of Matias Fernandez-Pardo and Felix Correia.
Key figures:
- Lille score 1.73 goals per away match and have picked up 26 points in 15 away games, which is the second-best figure in the league.
- In their last four away league matches the visitors have four wins with a goal difference of 9:2, which is an average of 2.75 goals per game.
- Matias Fernandez-Pardo has seven goals and five assists with 7.40 xG.
Potential lineup (4-2-3-1): Berke Ozer – Thomas Meunier, Nathan Ngoye, Aissa Mandi, Romain Perraud – Benjamin Andre, Ayoub Bouaddi – Ethan Mbappe, Hakon Arnar Haraldsson, Felix Correia – Matias Fernandez-Pardo.
Unavailable: Nabil Bentaleb, Marc-Aurel Caylar, Hamza Ighamane, Ousmane Toure.
The betting line rates the visitors' attack cautiously. Lille are not going there to shut up shop – the visitors need the Champions League, and the remaining fixtures no longer allow them to sit back and wait. Against Paris with their home scoring it is more sensible to play on the front foot. The first match of the season between these teams ended in a Lille win (4:2). Even then it was clear that the Paris defence struggles to cope with runs in the half-spaces, and it was precisely there that Lille produced their most dangerous attacks.
Confident Bet for the Match
Lille individual total over 1.5 is a bet with an obvious edge. The Lille attack is led by the tandem of Matias Fernandez-Pardo (7 + 5) and Felix Correia (4 + 5). In their last three away rounds the northerners put four past Toulouse and two each past Marseille and Rennes, and those two are far from weak sides. They scored four against Paris in the first half of the season. The hosts' defence is depleted: Sofiane Alakouch and Timothee Kolodziejczak are out, and the pairing of Diego Coppola and Mustafa M'Bow is not at the required level against the pace and combination play of Lille. Going into a match with the Dogs with such a case is a clear invitation to another high-scoring away performance.
Prediction: Lille, over 1.5 goals
Additional Bet
An alternative is Both teams to score – Yes. Paris are not harmless in attack: 11 goals in the last four rounds. The team under Kombouare scrap for points at home: three wins in the last rounds. Ciro Immobile will definitely find his chance at Jean Bouin, and Ilan Kebbal and Nanitamo Ikone will add creativity from the flanks. In the first head-to-head meeting of the season the teams exchanged goals – 2:4, and Lille away with the Fernandez-Pardo – Correia tandem do not play from deep defence. Both teams to score – Yes is a case where the betting line does not see that Paris under their new coach at home are already nothing like they were in the autumn.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
