The Matchday 1 clash of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage between Manchester City (England) and Napoli (Italy) will take place on September 18 at the Etihad Stadium. Manchester City vs. Napoli: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Manchester City
The club earned a spot in the group stage by finishing third in last season's Premier League. Manchester City is a regular participant in the Champions League, playing in the main draw for the 15th consecutive season. Additionally, the team won the Champions League trophy in 2023. However, their previous campaign was less successful, as they were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by Real Madrid (2-3, 1-3). Notably, Manchester City has lost four of their last five Champions League matches. The team has also suffered just one defeat in their last nine home matches in European competitions against Italian clubs (4 wins, 4 draws).
Ahead of the Champions League, the club signed goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma.
- The team has not lost in regular time in 36 of their last 37 home matches in the Champions League (30 wins, 6 draws).
- Club players have scored at least twice in 90 minutes in 15 of their last 17 home games in this European competition.
- At least four goals were scored in regular time in 6 of the last 8 home matches of the English side in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Manchester City (4-3-3)
Gianluigi Donnarumma – Abdukodir Khusanov, Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, Nico O’Reilly – Tijjani Reijnders, Rodri Hernandez, Bernardo Silva – Jeremy Doku, Erling Haaland, Phil Foden.
Defenders Ryan Ait-Nouri and John Stones, midfielder Mateo Kovacic, forwards Omar Marmoush and Rayan Cherki will miss the game due to injuries.
Napoli
The team won the previous Serie A season and will compete in the Champions League group stage. For Napoli, this marks their ninth participation in the main draw of the Champions League, with their best achievement being a quarter-final appearance in the 2022/23 season, losing to AC Milan (0-1, 1-1). Notably, the team has secured just one win in their last five Champions League matches (2 draws, 2 losses). Napoli's current scoring streak in this European competition stands at nine matches. Additionally, Napoli has never won in ten European matches against English clubs (3 draws, 7 losses). However, the team has suffered only one defeat in eight opening matches in the Champions League group stage (5 wins, 2 draws).
Before the Champions League, the club signed forward Rasmus Hojlund.
- No more than three goals were scored in regular time in 5 of the last 7 away matches of the team in the Champions League.
- Club players scored exactly 1 or 2 times in 90 minutes in 5 of the last 6 away matches in this European competition.
- Napoli conceded in regular time in 6 of the last 8 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Napoli (4-5-1)
Alex Meret – Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Buongiorno, Sam Beukema, Leonardo Spinazzola – Matteo Politano, Kevin De Bruyne, Stanislav Lobotka, André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Scott McTominay – Rasmus Hojlund.
Defender Amir Rrahmani and forward Romelu Lukaku will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Felix Zwayer (Germany)
Matches – 16 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 90;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.6;
Red cards shown – 7;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 38%.
Match Prediction: Manchester City vs. Napoli
Both teams favor an attacking style and have no issues with scoring, so I'm inclined to expect both teams to score in this encounter. Manchester City is very effective in creating chances at home: in their last 18 home Champions League matches, they have failed to score only once and scored fewer than two goals on just three occasions. Meanwhile, in 6 of their last 8 home games in this competition, the English side kept a clean sheet.
Napoli also focuses heavily on attack and regularly scores even away from home: in their last 12 away Champions League matches, the team has only twice left the pitch without scoring. However, their defense is not always error-free: in 9 of their last 12 away matches in this tournament, the Italians have conceded, including at least two goals in five of those games.
My prediction: Both teams to score – yes
