The Matchday 3 clash in the 2025/26 Conference League group stage between Mainz (Germany) and Fiorentina (Italy) will take place on November 6 at the Mewa Arena. Mainz vs. Fiorentina: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Mainz
In the previous round, Bo Henriksen's side defeated Zrinjski at home (1-0). As a result, Mainz extended their winning streak in European competitions to three matches. Moreover, the team managed to keep a clean sheet for the fourth time in the last six European outings. It is also noteworthy that the club has scored in 13 of their last 14 matches in European competitions. The Germans are in 6th place in the overall group stage standings with six points.
- The team has not lost in their last seven home matches in European competitions (4 wins, 3 draws).
- The club has not conceded more than one goal in their previous seven home games in European competitions.
- Mainz scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 home matches in European club tournaments.
Predicted lineup for Mainz (3-4-3)
Robin Zentner – Andreas Hanche-Olsen, Silvan Widmer, Kacper Potulski – Dominik Kohr, Kaishu Sano, Lennard Maloney, Sota Kawasaki – Ben Bobzien, Nelson Weiper, William Bøving.
Defenders Maxim Leitsch and Anthony Caci will miss the match due to injuries.
Fiorentina
In the first round, the Italians comfortably defeated Rapid away (3-0). As a result, Fiorentina secured their fifth consecutive win in the Conference League – the longest streak for the club in this European competition over the last three seasons. Additionally, the team managed to keep a clean sheet for only the third time in their last ten Conference League matches. Fiorentina, along with Cypriot club AEK, tops the overall group stage standings with identical goal difference and six points (5:0).
- The club has not lost in 12 of their last 15 away matches in the Conference League (6 wins, 6 draws).
- At least three goals have been scored in 7 of their last 8 away matches in this European competition.
- The Italians scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Conference League.
Predicted lineup for Fiorentina (3-5-2)
David de Gea – Pablo Mari, Pietro Comuzzo, Mattia Viti – Fabiano Parisi, Cher Ndour, Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, Nicolo Fagioli, Niccolo Fortini – Roberto Piccoli, Edin Dzeko.
Defenders Robin Gosens and Tariq Lamptey, as well as forward Christian Kouame, will not play due to injuries.
Referee
Lawrence Visser (Belgium)
Matches – 13 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 78;
Average yellow cards per match – 6;
Red cards shown – 6;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 23%.
Match Prediction for Mainz vs. Fiorentina
At home, the Germans aim to play actively in attack, and despite lacking extensive experience in European competitions, Mainz regularly finds the net. In their last seven home matches in European competitions, the team has not left the field without scoring. However, the club cannot boast very high scoring efficiency: in six instances during this period, the Germans scored exactly 1 or 2 goals.
Fiorentina has had mixed results on the road, but one area the team cannot be fully satisfied with is their defense. In their last nine away matches in the Conference League, the Italians have kept a clean sheet only twice. However, they have not suffered any significant defensive collapses, as in six of the matches where they conceded goals, they did not allow more than two goals.
I think the hosts will definitely score, but not too many. My prediction: Exact number of goals for Mainz: 1-2
