The UEFA Europa League 2025/26 return-leg play-off match between Genk (Belgium) and GNK Dinamo Zagreb (Croatia) will take place on 26 February at the Cegeka Arena. The score in the first leg was 3:1 in favour of Genk. Genk vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Genk
The Belgian side have previously reached the Europa League round of 16 only once. There is an excellent chance to repeat the achievement of the 2016/17 season, when they even made it as far as the quarter-finals of this competition. Genk produced an excellent performance in the first leg in Croatia and, in an even contest, managed to win 3:1. In the return match, the home team simply need to avoid defeat, and they can also lose by one goal and still go through to the next round of European competition. It is worth noting that the team have won five of their previous six Europa League matches.
- The club have scored at least two goals in five of their last six matches in this competition.
- Genk have failed to win eight of their last 10 home matches in the Europa League (three draws and five defeats).
- The team have not scored more than one goal in seven of their last 10 home matches in this European competition.
Potential Genk Lineup (4-3-3)*
Tobias Lawal – Zakaria El Ouahdi, Matte Smets, Mujaid Sadick Aliu, Joris Kayembe – Daan Heymans, Bryan Heynen, Jarne Steuckers – Junya Ito, Konstantinos Karetsas, Aaron Bibout.
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
The Croatians could have expected a more favourable result in the first leg, but they made a poor start to the match by conceding two unanswered goals, and then also collapsed late on when they made a mistake in the 90th minute. Now they need to win away from home, and they must win by at least two goals to take the tie into extra time. It is also worth adding that GNK Dinamo Zagreb have lost five of their previous six Europa League matches (one win). The club have progressed further in this competition only twice before – in the 2018/19 and 2020/21 seasons.
- Three or more goals were scored in five of the Zagreb side’s last six matches in this competition.
- Both teams scored in eight of Dinamo’s previous 11 Europa League matches.
- The Balkan side have scored in eight of their last 10 away matches in this European competition.
Potential GNK Dinamo Zagreb Lineup (4-3-3)*
Dominik Livakovic – Scott McKenna, Sergi Dominguez, Matteo Perez Vinlof, Maurice Valincic – Luka Stojkovic, Josip Misic, Miha Zajc – Fran Topic, Dion Beljo, Arber Hoxha.
Forward Dion Beljo is unavailable due to suspension.
Referee
Felix Zwayer (Germany)
Matches – 6 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 21;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.5;
Red cards shown – 4;
Fouls per match on average – 20;
Penalties – 50%.
Genk vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb: Match Prediction
Of course, it will be very difficult for the Croatians to pull back two goals. However, it is too early to write them off, because an early goal can turn the game on its head and the visitors will have a chance to rescue the tie. There is no doubt that the Balkan side will charge forward from the first minute to try to get back into it, and they will commit plenty of energy to scoring inside the opening 45 minutes. That could suit the hosts, who know how to catch opponents on the counter-attack. Interestingly, in the Europa League group stage in 2021/22 the clubs faced each other twice, and the match in Belgium ended 3:0 to GNK Dinamo Zagreb.
We assume that the spectators will see at least three goals in this return leg as well. Genk are not quite as strong at home and have conceded in nine of their last 10 home matches in this European competition. Meanwhile, the Belgians’ last two home Europa League matches ended 2:1. The Croatians have scored in eight of their last 10 away matches in this tournament, but they have also conceded in all six of their away games in this European competition.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
* For each team, the starting XI listed is from their most recent match in this competition.
