The second leg of the 2024/25 Champions League semi-final between Inter Milan (Italy) and Barcelona (Spain) will take place on May 6 at the San Siro Stadium in Milan. The first match ended in a 3-3 draw. Inter Milan vs. Barcelona: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Inter Milan
Simone Inzaghi's team managed to hold Barcelona to a draw in the first match at their home ground (3-3), extending their unbeaten run in the Champions League to seven games (5 wins, 2 draws). Additionally, Inter has scored at least twice in their last six matches in this European competition. However, they have conceded five goals in their last two Champions League encounters, even though they had only let in three goals over the previous 11 matches. To reach their second final in the last three seasons of this tournament, the team needs a victory. Notably, Inter has won 9 of their last 11 home semi-finals in the Champions League.
- The club has not lost in regular time in their last 14 home matches in the Champions League (11 wins, 3 draws).
- The team has not conceded more than one goal in 90 minutes in 10 of their last 11 home games in this European competition.
- Inter has scored exactly one or two goals in regular time in 5 of their last 7 home matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Inter Milan (3-5-2)
Yann Sommer – Yann Bisseck, Alessandro Bastoni, Francesco Acerbi – Federico Dimarco, Hakan Calhanoglu, Nicolo Barella, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Denzel Dumfries – Lautaro Martinez, Marcus Thuram.
Defender Benjamin Pavard will miss the match due to injury. Forward Lautaro Martinez is preparing for the game, having recovered from an injury.
Barcelona
Hans Flick's side, having drawn in the first match, failed to win for the second consecutive time in the Champions League, following an away defeat to Borussia Dortmund (1-3). Moreover, Barcelona has conceded at least three goals for the third time in the current tournament. However, the team has scored the most goals in this Champions League season – 40 in total. Now, to reach their first final in this European competition in ten seasons, the Catalans need a win, and in case of a draw after 90 minutes, extra time will be played.
- The team has not lost in regular time in 6 of their last 8 away matches in the Champions League (5 wins, 1 draw).
- Both opponents have scored in 8 of the last 9 away matches of the club in this European competition.
- The Catalans have conceded at least two goals in regular time in 6 of their last 7 away games in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Barcelona (4-2-3-1)
Wojciech Szczesny – Eric Garcia, Inigo Martinez, Pau Cubarsi, Gerard Martin – Frenkie de Jong, Pedri – Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Raphinha Dias – Ferran Torres.
Defenders Alex Balde and Jules Kounde, as well as midfielders Pablo Torre, Marc Bernal, and Marc Casado, will miss the match due to injuries. Forward Robert Lewandowski is ready for the match but is unlikely to start.
Referee
Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Matches – 10 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 36;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 40%.
Inter Milan vs. Barcelona: Match Prediction
In the first match, Inter showed that they are capable not only of solid defense but also of effective attacking play. Moreover, at home in the current Champions League campaign, Inter has been quite prolific: in six matches, the club's players have scored 13 goals. The Italian side has failed to score at least twice in only two games, one of which was against Arsenal – one of the best teams in terms of goals conceded in this Champions League.
Barcelona is very strong in attack, but Hans Flick's side has yet to overcome their defensive issues. Away from home, the Spaniards score frequently, but they also concede regularly and in large numbers: in the current Champions League, the Catalans have played six away matches, conceding at least two goals in five of them. Overall, the team has conceded 20 goals in this tournament – the worst record among all semi-finalists.
I believe the hosts will capitalize on their opponent's defensive problems and score at least two goals. My prediction: Inter Individual Total Over 1.5
