The second leg of the first qualifying round of the 2025/26 Europa League between Ilves (Finland) and Shakhtar Donetsk (Ukraine) will take place on July 17 at the Tammela Stadium in Tampere. The first match ended 6-0 in favor of Shakhtar Donetsk. Ilves vs. Shakhtar Donetsk: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Ilves
In the first leg of the Europa League qualification, the Finnish club suffered a heavy 0-6 defeat away to Shakhtar. Their previous participation in this tournament was in the 2020/21 season, where they were eliminated in the first round. Moreover, Ilves has never progressed beyond the initial stage of qualification in the Europa League. To keep their hopes alive for advancing to the next round, the Finns need to win by at least six goals in regular time. Otherwise, the team will continue their European campaign in the second qualifying round of the Conference League. Notably, in the national championship, the club is currently in second place after 16 rounds.
- In 6 of Ilves' last 7 European matches, both teams scored.
- The team has not lost by more than one goal in 6 of their last 8 international outings.
- More than two goals have been scored in 6 of the club's last 7 European matches.
Predicted lineup for Ilves (3-4-3)
Otso Virtanen – Matias Rale, Aapo Mäenpää, Sauli Väisänen – Anton Popovitch, Kalle Wallius, Sauli Väisänen, Oiva Jukkola – Marius Söderbäck, Maxim Stepan, Roope Riski.
Shakhtar Donetsk
The Ukrainian club confidently won the first leg against Ilves (6-0), thus ending a five-match winless streak in the Europa League (2 draws, 3 losses). This match also marked the official debut for new head coach Arda Turan, and it turned out to be historic: the victory over the Finnish club was the team's largest in European qualification. Now, to advance to the next round, the Ukrainians simply need to avoid losing by more than seven goals.
- Shakhtar has not scored more than one goal in 5 of their last 6 away Europa League matches.
- At least three goals have been recorded in 7 of the team's last 9 away games in the Europa League.
- In 6 of their last 7 away European matches, the Ukrainian club has not won (1 draw, 5 losses).
Predicted lineup for Shakhtar Donetsk (4-1-4-1)
Dmytro Riznyk – Valeriy Bondar, Mykola Matviyenko, Yefim Konoplya, Pedro Henrique Azevedo – Marlon Gomes – Kevin, Georgiy Sudakov, Artem Bondarenko, Alisson Santana – Kauan Elias.
Referee
Mohammad Aslam (Norway)
Matches – 6 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 36;
Average yellow cards per match – 6;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 0%.
Match Prediction: Ilves vs. Shakhtar Donetsk
The Ukrainian club has practically secured their place in the next round, having thrashed Ilves 6-0 in the first leg. With such an advantage, Arda Turan might opt for rotation, especially since this is just the first of four qualifying rounds. It is crucial for the Donetsk team to conserve energy for more important matches.
Moreover, the return leg will be played on artificial turf, while Shakhtar's entire preseason was conducted on natural grass. This could benefit the hosts, who are accustomed to such a pitch and will try to capitalize on this advantage.
Furthermore, Shakhtar has not been prolific in scoring in away European matches – the team has not scored more than two goals in their last 7 away Europa League games, as well as in their previous 5 international outings overall. Meanwhile, Ilves plays quite organized at home: in the 21st century, the club has played only three home matches in European competitions and has not conceded more than two goals in any of them. My prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk individual total under 2.5 goals
* The lineup for each team is based on their previous match in this tournament.
