The first leg of the 2025/26 UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round between Ilves (Finland) and AZ Alkmaar (Netherlands) will take place on July 24 at the Tammela Stadium in Tampere. Ilves vs. AZ Alkmaar: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Ilves
In the first qualifying round of the Europa League, the Finnish club was eliminated by Shakhtar Donetsk over two legs, continuing their journey in the second round of the Conference League qualifiers. Despite a heavy defeat in the first match, the team managed to regroup and held a draw at home (0-0). This marked the first European home match against such a prestigious opponent in which Ilves did not lose. It is worth noting that the team has only reached this stage of the Conference League qualifiers once before, in the previous season. Back then, the Finns advanced past this round but were halted in the next stage of qualification.
- Both teams scored in 6 of the club's last 8 international matches.
- Ilves has not lost by more than one goal in 7 of their last 9 European matches.
- Three or more goals were scored in 6 of the team's last 8 European fixtures.
Predicted lineup for Ilves (3-5-2)
Otso Virtanen – Matias Rale, Tatu Miettunen, Sauli Väisänen – Anton Popovich, Kalle Vallius, Jonna Veteli, Oiva Jukkola, Marius Söderbek – Adeleke Akinyemi, Roope Riski.
AZ Alkmaar
In the Dutch league, teams finishing from 5th to 8th place competed for a spot in the Conference League. The format included two semifinals and a final, each round consisting of a single match. AZ Alkmaar won both matches and earned the right to play in the Conference League. Previously, the club participated in this tournament three times, reaching the semifinals in the 2022/23 season. In the last European season, the team competed in the main stage of the Europa League, where they collected 11 points and finished 19th overall (3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). In the playoffs, the Dutch team first defeated Galatasaray but then lost to the eventual tournament winners, Tottenham Hotspur.
During the offseason, forwards Ruben van Bommel and Jayden Addai left the club.
- The team lost 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Conference League (1 win, 1 draw).
- AZ Alkmaar conceded at least one goal in 9 of their previous 10 games in this tournament.
- More than three goals were scored in 4 of the club's last 5 away European matches.
Predicted lineup for AZ Alkmaar (4-3-3)
Jeroen Zoet – Wouter Goes, Alexandre Penetra, Mees de Wit, Denso Kasius – Jordy Clasie, Peer Koopmeiners, Kees Smit – Ro-Zangelo Daal, Troy Parrott, Ernest Poku.
Referee
Matteo Marchenaro (Italy)
Matches – 9 (International matches and Italian championship, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 45;
Average yellow cards per match – 5;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 33%.
Match Prediction: Ilves vs. AZ Alkmaar
The Finnish club approaches the match with several significant advantages. In European competitions, the team has played 9 matches and only lost by more than one goal twice. The team is particularly strong at home, having never lost by more than one goal in four home European matches. Additionally, Ilves has an artificial pitch, which can be challenging for opponents, especially for teams like AZ Alkmaar, who are accustomed to natural grass.
Moreover, the Finnish league is in full swing, while the Dutch have yet to play an official game this season, which might affect the players' physical readiness. It's also worth noting that AZ Alkmaar has not won by more than one goal in their last 13 away Conference League games, as well as in their previous 19 away European matches.
Considering all these factors, I suggest the prediction: Ilves with a handicap (+1.5)
