The first leg of the 2025/26 Conference League round of 16 tie between Fiorentina (Italy) and Rakow Czestochowa (Poland) will take place on 12 March at the Artemio Franchi in Florence. Fiorentina vs Rakow Czestochowa: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Fiorentina
Fiorentina seemed to have all but wrapped up a place in the round of 16 after the away leg against Jagiellonia Bialystok (3:0). However, in the return match the team lost by the same scoreline, but managed to snatch victory in extra time (2:1). It is worth noting that Fiorentina have lost after 90 minutes in four of their last six Conference League matches, with three of those defeats coming without scoring. We should add that the club have competed in every edition of the Conference League and have twice reached the final, although last season the Florentine side’s run ended in the semi-finals.
- At least one team failed to score in 6 of Fiorentina’s previous 8 matches in the Conference League.
- On home soil in this competition, the team have won 8 of their last 11 matches (1 draw, 2 defeats).
- In 11 of the previous 13 home games in the Conference League, the club scored at least twice.
Potential Fiorentina Lineup (4-5-1)*
Luca Lezzerini – Marin Pongracic, Niccolo Fortini, Pietro Comuzzo, Robin Gosens – Dodo, Giovanni Fabbian, Rolando Mandragora, Cher Ndour, Jacopo Fazzini – Roberto Piccoli.
Defender Marin Pongracic is suspended. Forward Moise Kean, defender Tarik Lamptey and goalkeeper Luca Lezzerini are injured.
Rakow Czestochowa
The Poles finished second in the league phase, with Rakow Czestochowa one of three teams to go through that stage unbeaten (4 wins, 2 draws). Lukasz Tomczyk’s side conceded just two goals, and only AEK Larnaca posted a better record (1). In attack, however, the club looked modest and did not even reach double figures for goals scored (9). It is worth recalling that previously the Poles had not even made it past the qualifying round barrier in this tournament.
- No more than two goals were scored in 5 of Rakow Czestochowa’s previous 6 Conference League games.
- Away from home in this competition, the team are unbeaten in 6 matches (4 wins, 2 draws).
- In their last 9 away matches in the Conference League, the club have not conceded more than one goal.
Potential Rakow Czestochowa Lineup (3-4-3)*
Oliwier Zych – Efstratios Svarnas, Fran Tudor, Bogdan Racovitan – Oskar Repka, Karol Struski, Michael Ameyaw, Adriano Amorim – Jonathan Braut Brunes, Lamine Diaby, Patryk Makuch.
Referee
Georgi Kabakov (Bulgaria)
Matches – 8 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 28;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.5;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 63%.
Fiorentina vs Rakow Czestochowa: Match Prediction
The Poles were a pleasant surprise in the league phase. In the company of more high-profile opponents, the team managed to finish second. Rakow Czestochowa’s defensive work deserves special attention: just two conceded goals is the second-best record in the league phase. What is more, the club have not conceded more than once in 18 Conference League matches, and across that run they have kept 11 clean sheets. We are confident that, with the return leg in mind, the team will come to Italy with the aim of keeping their goal intact.
Fiorentina have already come through against one Polish side, although they gave their supporters plenty of cause for concern. It is unlikely to be straightforward against the next opponent either. Fiorentina have problems breaking down a packed defence. In the league phase, the club failed to score against Lausanne-Sport and Greek side AEK Athens. At the other end, the Italians allow opponents a lot, but it is hard to expect Rakow Czestochowa to play proactively in attack – the Poles rely on different strengths.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
* For each team, the starting XI listed is from their previous match in this tournament.
