The second leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round of 16 tie between Chelsea (England) and Paris Saint-Germain (France) will take place on 17 March at Stamford Bridge in London. The score in the first leg was 5:2 in favour of Paris Saint-Germain. Chelsea vs Paris Saint-Germain: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Chelsea
Chelsea lost the first meeting by a heavy 5:2 scoreline. Although up until the 74th minute the home team were matching their opponents, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia then came off the bench, producing 2+1 in goals and assists to secure a convincing victory for his club. Now the English side need to win by four goals to reach the next round, or by three to take the tie into extra time. Interestingly, Chelsea have won in each of their last three appearances at the round of 16 stage in the Champions League, as well as 13 of their previous 16 two-legged ties in continental competition. It is also worth adding that the last time the Londoners lost a first away leg in Europe by a three-goal margin was in the 1994/95 Cup Winners' Cup semi-finals.
- The team have avoided defeat in 6 of their previous 8 matches in this tournament (5 wins and 1 draw).
- Three or more goals have been scored in 6 of Chelsea's last 7 Champions League games.
- On home soil, the English side are on a four-match winning run in this tournament.
Potential Chelsea Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Robert Sanchez – Malo Gusto, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella – Andrey Santos, Moises Caicedo – Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernandez, Pedro Neto – Joao Pedro.
Defenders Reece James and Levi Colwill will miss the game through injury. Forward Estevao is still a doubt.
Paris Saint-Germain
Curiously, the Parisians created barely enough to justify even one goal in the first leg. In the home match, the team posted an xG of just 0.90, while their opponents' figure was higher at 1.56. The French side earned a comfortable win thanks to clinical finishing. Now, to reach the quarter-finals, the club can even lose by two goals, but no more. Note that Paris Saint-Germain have progressed in European two-legged ties when winning the first home leg by a three-goal margin. Interestingly, the visitors have lost just 1 of their last 9 matches against English opposition (6 wins and 2 draws), and they have also won each of their previous three two-legged ties with English clubs.
- The French side have avoided defeat in normal time in 12 of their previous 14 matches in this tournament (9 wins and 3 draws).
- Both teams to score has landed in Paris Saint-Germain's last five Champions League games.
- Three or more goals have been scored in 11 of the Parisians' last 13 matches in this European competition.
Potential Paris Saint-Germain Lineup (4-3-3)
Matvey Safonov – Achraf Hakimi, Ilya Zabarnyi, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes – Warren Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Joao Neves – Senny Mayulu, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele.
Midfielders Kwenten Ndzjantu and Fabian Ruiz will be unavailable through injury.
Referee
Slavko Vincic (Slovenia)
Matches – 8 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 19;
Yellow cards per match – 2.4;
Red cards shown – 2;
Fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 25%.
Chelsea vs Paris Saint-Germain: Match Prediction
Seven goals were scored in the first leg. It is unlikely the teams will be able to repeat that kind of attacking output, but we should certainly see at least three goals. The home side have no option but to go on the front foot from the first minute in search of an early goal that would restore some intrigue to the tie. At the same time, they will have to pay less attention to their defensive work, which the visitors can take advantage of.
In Chelsea's previous seven Champions League matches, they have scored two or more goals on five occasions. In addition, the hosts have produced the same level of scoring in each of their last seven European matches against Ligue 1 opposition. As for Paris Saint-Germain, they have scored at least twice in 9 of their previous 13 matches in this tournament. We should also note that three or more goals have been scored in 6 of the Londoners' last 7 Champions League games and in 11 of the French side's previous 13 matches in this tournament.
Prediction: Over 3 goals
