The first leg of the EFL Cup semi-final between Chelsea and Arsenal will take place january 14 at Stamford Bridge Stadium in London. Chelsea vs Arsenal: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Chelsea
Chelsea had a favourable draw, as in the three previous rounds they faced only one Premier League opponent who was a clear outsider, Wolverhampton, and beat them 4:3. In the previous round the hosts played away against Cardiff and with their second team managed to overcome the Welsh side (3:1). Last season the club failed, losing at an early stage to the eventual winners Newcastle. However in 2024 and 2022 the club reached the final, but on both occasions lost to Liverpool (after extra time and on penalties).
- In the previous 7 matches in this competition the club suffered only 1 defeat (5 wins and 1 draw).
- Chelsea have not lost at home in the EFL Cup for 10 matches (7 wins and 3 draws).
- No more than two goals were scored in 7 of the hosts' previous 10 home matches in this competition.
Potential Chelsea Lineup (4-2-3-1)*
Filip Jørgensen – Benoît Badiashile, Josh Achimpong, Jorrel Hato, Tosin Adarabioyo – Andrey Santos, Moisés Caicedo – Jamie Gittens, Facundo Buonanotte, Tyrique George – Marc Guiu.
The new head coach is Liam Rosenior, who previously worked at Strasbourg. Defender Levi Colwill and midfielder Romeo Lavia will miss the match due to injuries.
Arsenal
Arsenal progressed with great difficulty in the previous round against Crystal Palace, advancing only in a penalty shootout (1:1, pen. 8:7). The conceded goal was the first in the current edition for the club, since in the earlier rounds they had comfortably beaten their opponents with identical 2:0 scorelines. Interestingly, in the 21st century the club has never won the EFL Cup, and in the last 15 years reached the final only twice. Last season Arsenal were stopped by Newcastle at the semi-final stage (twice 0:2).
- Exactly two goals were scored in regular time in the club's last five matches in this competition.
- In the previous 12 away matches in the EFL Cup Arsenal suffered only 2 defeats (6 wins and 4 draws).
- At least one team failed to score in 8 of Arsenal's last 9 away matches in this competition.
Potential Arsenal Lineup (4-3-3)*
Kepa Arrizabalaga – Myles Lewis-Skelly, Ricardo Calafiori, Jurrien Timber, William Saliba – Mikel Merino, Eberechi Eze, Christian Nørgaard – Gabriel Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus, Noni Madueke.
Defenders Cristian Mosquera and Ricardo Calafiori will miss the match due to injuries. Defender Piero Hincapié will most likely be absent because of an injury.
Referee
Simon Hooper (England)
Matches – 9 (the FA Cup and the EFL Cup, 2023/24–2025/26);
Yellow Cards Shown (including seconds) – 20;
Average Yellow Cards Per Match – 2.2;
Red Cards Shown – 0;
Fouls Per Match Average – 21;
Penalties – 0%.
Chelsea vs Arsenal: Match Prediction
This will be the first official match for Liam Rosenior as head coach. Considering that Chelsea have two full squads, the players will try to show their abilities as well as possible in front of the new manager. We expect the hosts to at least avoid defeat in the first leg of the semi-final, especially since they have not lost at home in this competition since October 2019. Meanwhile Arsenal on the road in the EFL Cup tend to alternate wins with defeats or draws.
Arsenal treat this cup rather coolly, and it is not surprising that they have not won it in the last 32 years. The club is more focused on victory in the Premier League and in the Champions League, so it would not be a tragedy if they are once again eliminated from this competition. In addition, Chelsea have not lost to Arsenal at home in 13 of the last 16 official head-to-head meetings. Also the last three meetings between the two clubs at St James' Park in the Premier League finished as draws.
Prediction: Chelsea To Win Or Draw
* For each team the starting lineup is shown from their previous match in this competition.
