The first leg of the 2024/25 Champions League Round of 16 between Bayern Munich (Germany) and Bayer Leverkusen (Germany) will take place on February 5 at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Bayern Munich
The Munich side overcame Celtic in the previous round. After defeating the Scottish team away (2-1), Vincent Kompany's squad drew 1-1 in the return leg. This draw was their first in the last 11 Champions League matches (6 wins, 4 losses). Notably, Bayern managed to keep a clean sheet in only two of these games. Additionally, the German team has reached the quarter-finals in the last five editions of this tournament.
- The team has not scored more than two goals in 7 of their last 9 Champions League matches.
- At home, the club has won 6 of their last 8 Champions League matches (2 draws).
- In 8 of their last 10 home games in this tournament, Bayern has not conceded more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for Bayern Munich (4-5-1)
Manuel Neuer – Raphael Guerreiro, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae, Konrad Laimer – Kingsley Coman, Michael Olise, Leon Goretzka, Jamal Musiala, Leroy Sane – Harry Kane.
Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen skipped the playoff matches. In the main round, Xabi Alonso's side finished in sixth place: the team avoided defeat in 6 of 8 matches (5 wins, 1 draw), with both losses occurring away. Interestingly, Bayer managed to keep a clean sheet in all their victories. However, five clubs conceded fewer than the Germans. The Round of 16 has been a stumbling block for Leverkusen, as their journey in this tournament has ended at this stage in the last five instances.
- At least one opponent failed to score in 7 of Bayer's last 9 Champions League matches.
- The Germans have not won in 6 of their last 7 away games in the Champions League (2 draws, 4 losses).
- Leverkusen has scored in 4 of their last 5 away games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Bayer Leverkusen (4-3-3)
Matej Kovar – Alejandro Grimaldo, Jeremie Frimpong, Jonathan Tah, Nordi Mukiele – Exequiel Palacios, Robert Andrich, Granit Xhaka – Amine Adli, Florian Wirtz, Patrik Schick.
Referee
Michael Oliver (England)
Matches – 11 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 41;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 36%.
Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen: Match Prediction
Less than a month has passed since the last meeting of these rivals. In the 22nd round of the Bundesliga, Bayern traveled to Leverkusen but seemingly forgot to show up on the pitch. Their first shot on goal came in the 74th minute, and they failed to hit the target for the first time in the league since 2008. Leverkusen had a flurry of chances, hit the crossbar twice, and recorded an xG of 2.56 against Bayern's 0.07. This was Xabi Alonso's sixth consecutive unbeaten match against Bayern (3 wins, 3 draws), making him the first coach to achieve such a feat. Nevertheless, bookmakers still favor Bayern.
Bayern has secured six wins in this Champions League campaign, half of which were by more than one goal. However, the level of their opponents in these matches does not compare to Leverkusen. Bayer suffered two defeats in the main round: they faltered in Liverpool and conceded a decisive goal against Atletico in the 90th minute.
Bayern will undoubtedly regroup and aim to redeem themselves for their recent lackluster performance. However, it remains uncertain if this will be enough against a currently challenging opponent. Notably, there is a positive handicap offered for Leverkusen. My prediction: Bayer with a handicap (+1)
