The first leg of the 2024/25 Europa League semi-final between Athletic (Spain) and Manchester United (England) will take place on May 1 at the San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao. Athletic vs. Manchester United: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Athletic
The Basques have been absent from European competitions since 2018. Their return to one of the continental tournaments has been outstanding – reaching the Europa League semi-finals for the first time since the 2011/12 season. In the playoffs, the Spaniards overcame two rounds, defeating Roma and Rangers. They managed to outplay the Italians with a better home result (1:2 and 3:1), while in the two-legged tie with the Scots, Ernesto Valverde's side excelled in defense – 0:0 and 2:0.
- The club has not lost in 10 of their last 12 Europa League matches (8 wins and 2 draws).
- At least two goals have been scored in 8 of Athletic's last 9 matches in this European competition.
- The Basques have conceded just one goal in the first halves of their last eight matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Athletic (4-3-3)
Julen Agirrezabala – Oscar De Marcos, Lekue, Yeray Alvarez, Daniel Vivian – Mikel Haurregui, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Oihan Sancet – Alex Berenguer, Nico Williams, Maroan Sannadi.
The team has only one player in the infirmary, midfielder Oihan Sancet.
Manchester United
In the past eight years, Manchester United has reached the Europa League semi-finals for the fourth time. Like the Basques, the English side advanced directly to the round of 16, where they confidently dealt with another La Liga representative – Real Sociedad (1:1 and 4:1). In the previous round, they needed some luck: both matches against Lyon ended with the same score of 2:2, but they managed to overcome the French resistance with a victory in extra time (3:2). Interestingly, this is the first time in European competition history that five goals were scored in extra time, with one team (Manchester United) scoring two goals after the 120th minute.
- Manchester United is the only team among those participating in this season's Champions League and Europa League that has not suffered a defeat in regular time (6 wins and 6 draws).
- Both teams scored in 7 of Manchester United's last 8 Europa League games after 90 minutes.
- In nine of the English side's last matches in this tournament, there was a draw in the first half eight times.
Predicted lineup for Manchester United (3-4-3)
Andre Onana – Harry Maguire, Leny Yoro, Noussair Mazraoui – Diogo Dalot, Patrick Dorgu, Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes – Manuel Ugarte, Alejandro Garnacho, Rasmus Højlund.
Due to injuries, defenders Diogo Dalot, Aiden Heaven, and Lisandro Martinez, as well as forward Joshua Zirkzee, are out of the game. The participation of forward Amad Diallo and defender Matthijs de Ligt is questionable.
Referee
Espen Eskås (Norway)
Matches – 13 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 53;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.1;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 23%.
Match Prediction: Athletic vs. Manchester United
In a clash of opponents at this level, the home field will be a crucial factor. I anticipate that the Basques will aim to secure a victory in the first leg, preferably with a "clean sheet," and in the return match, they will rely on their excellent defense, which is the best in La Liga. Beating the club from Bilbao is incredibly difficult: this season, the Spaniards have won all six of their home matches in the Europa League, conceding just two goals.
It's worth noting that Athletic is also strong at San Mamés in their league, where they have suffered only one defeat in 17 matches in the current La Liga season (10 wins and 6 draws). Although Manchester United remains unbeaten in this European season, they have only won two of their six away matches (4 draws), and those victories came against modest opponents – Viktoria Plzeň and FCSB. It's also important to remember Manchester United's weakness in away matches in the Premier League, where they have won only 4 of 16 matches this season (5 draws and 7 losses).
My prediction – Athletic to Win
