Matchday 5 of the 2024/25 Europa League group stage between Athletic (Spain) and Elfsborg (Sweden) will take place on November 28 at the San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao. Athletic vs. Elfsborg: prediction and statistics.
Predicted lineups for Athletic vs. Elfsborg
Athletic (4-2-3-1): Julen Agirrezabala – Andoni Gorosabel, Yuri Berchiche, Aitor Paredes, Dani Vivian – Beñat Prados, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta – Iñaki Williams, Alex Berenguer, Nico Williams – Álvaro Djalo.
Elfsborg (3-4-3): Isak Pettersson – Terry Yegbe, Ibrahim Buhari, Sebastian Holmen – Niklas Hult, Timothy Ouma, Andri Baldursson, Simon Hedlund – Ahmed Qasem, Michael Baidoo, Arber Zeneli.
Each team's lineup is based on their previous match in this tournament.
Athletic
The Basques have not lost a single match in the Europa League group stage. After a draw with Roma in the first round (1-1), the team secured three consecutive victories, defeating AZ Alkmaar (2-0), Slavia (1-0), and Ludogorets (2-1). With these results, the club is positioned sixth in the standings. Notably, the Spaniards have conceded only two goals. Only Ajax has conceded fewer goals after four games, with just one.
- Athletic has not lost in 9 of their last 12 matches in this tournament (7 wins and 2 draws).
- Both teams have scored in 6 of Athletic's last 8 Europa League matches.
- The number "1" has appeared in the final score in 7 of Athletic's last 8 Europa League games.
Elfsborg
The Swedes have secured only one victory, defeating Roma 1-0 at home. The team also had a home draw with Braga (1-1). However, they suffered away defeats to AZ Alkmaar (2-3) and Galatasaray (3-4). Oscar Hiljemark's side is positioned 24th in the Europa League group stage standings. Notably, only three teams have conceded more goals than Elfsborg (8 goals) after four rounds.
- The club has lost only three times in regular time in their last 12 Europa League matches (7 wins and 2 draws).
- A maximum of two goals were scored in 90 minutes in 8 of Elfsborg's last 10 games in this tournament.
- The Swedes have opened the scoring in 9 of their last 12 Europa League matches.
Athletic vs. Elfsborg: Match Prediction
Bookmakers offer very low odds on a home win (around 1.2). However, I do not expect the Spaniards to win by a large margin. The last time the Basques won by three goals was in August 2017 in the Europa League, after which they played 16 matches in this tournament without a comprehensive victory. In this series, Athletic has only won three times by a two-goal margin.
Elfsborg last suffered a heavy defeat in the Europa League in September 2013. Since then, the Swedes have not lost by three or more goals in 29 matches. Notably, during this period, the Scandinavians lost only once by a two-goal margin.
Therefore, I believe that even if the hosts win, it will be by no more than two goals. My prediction: Elfsborg with a handicap (+2)
