Matchday 16 of LaLiga sees Alaves host Real Madrid on December 14 at Mendizorroza Stadium in Vitoria-Gasteiz. Alaves vs Real Madrid: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Alaves
Last week Alaves claimed an important 1-0 win over Real Sociedad, ending a three-match losing run in LaLiga. The victory also extended the gap from the relegation zone from three to six points and moved the club up to 11th in the table. Notably, Alaves kept a clean sheet for the first time in six league matches. Under Eduardo Coudet the side remain one of the most reliable defensive teams in LaLiga — they have conceded just 15 goals this season, a figure bettered only by Villarreal (13). However, their attacking output is modest: with 13 goals scored, only Oviedo (7) have fewer.
- Alaves have failed to win in eight of their last 11 LaLiga matches (2 draws, 6 defeats).
- The team have covered the +1.5 handicap in 11 home matches in this competition.
- The Basques have produced a run of uncompromising results in LaLiga across six games (2 wins, 4 defeats).
Predicted Alaves lineup (4-5-1)
Antonio Sivera – Jon Pacheco, Nahuel Tenaglia, Yonny, Víctor Parada – Ander Guevara, Calebe, Denis Suárez, Pablo Ibáñez, Abderrahman Rebbah – Lucas Boyé.
Central midfielder Antonio Blanco has served his suspension and is available.
Real Madrid
After a run of three draws in LaLiga, Real began the winter break with a convincing 3-0 away win at Athletic Club. That result looked set to kickstart momentum, but Madrid then suffered a surprising 0-2 home defeat to Celta Vigo a few days later. It was their first loss in nine league rounds and only their second of the season. Over the last five league matches Real have collected just six points from a possible 15, leaving them four points behind leaders Barcelona. Pressure continues to swirl around head coach Xabi Alonso, with reports suggesting his position could be in jeopardy should his side fail to beat Alaves.
- Real have scored 32 goals in this league campaign so far, second only to Barcelona (47).
- Madrid have found the net in 15 of their last 16 LaLiga away matches.
- At least two goals have been scored in six of the club's last seven matches in this competition.
Predicted Real Madrid lineup (4-4-2)
Thibaut Courtois – Raul Asensio, Éder Militão, Fran García, Álvaro Carreras – Federico Valverde, Arda Güler, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Jude Bellingham – Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappé.
Defenders Fran García and Álvaro Carreras, plus forward Endrick, are suspended. Defenders Éder Militão, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ferland Mendy, David Alaba and Dani Carvajal miss the game through injury. The involvement of Kylian Mbappé, midfielder Eduardo Camavinga and defenders Dyna Heisen and Antonio Rüdiger is in doubt.
Referee
Víctor García Verdura (Spain)
Matches – 8 (LaLiga, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 23;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.9;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 13%.
Match prediction: Alaves vs Real Madrid
Alaves remain one of the most defensively solid teams in LaLiga. Across the season they concede exactly one goal per match on average, a better record only than Villarreal (0.87). Only Barcelona have scored more than two goals against them this term (3-1), and that was an away game for Coudet's side. At home Alaves have not conceded more than two goals in 22 LaLiga matches, with 20 of those 22 fixtures seeing them concede no more than one goal.
Real Madrid are in a dip in form compounded by significant absences and ongoing speculation over Xabi Alonso's future. As a result they have recorded just one win in their last five league outings, and in four of those five matches the team failed to score more than two goals. Additionally, Real have reached three goals in only two of their last seven visits to Alaves in LaLiga.
Prediction – Real Madrid individual total under 2
*Each team's predicted lineup reflects their starting XI from their most recent match in this competition.
